SoftBank's Borrowing Binge Meets Its Operational Rollout
Published on 09/10/2026 at 17:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SoftBank Group is asking investors to fund two very different stories at once. On one side sits a balance sheet straining under the weight of its artificial-intelligence ambitions; on the other, a pair of operational projects that push the Japanese conglomerate beyond pure dealmaking. The market, for now, is pricing the first narrative far more aggressively than the second.
Shares in the Tokyo-listed group finished at EUR 36.66 on Thursday, down 2.4% from Wednesday's close of EUR 37.58 — a decline that outpaced the Nikkei 225, which slipped just 0.19% as Middle East tensions dulled the AI enthusiasm that has driven Japanese equities. The pattern is familiar: when nerves fray, SoftBank takes a disproportionate hit. Rising oil prices stoked inflation worries and fed expectations of further Bank of Japan rate moves, while weakness on Wall Street and climbing US Treasury yields soured the mood. For a company that funds itself through billions in bonds and credit lines, that combination of higher rates and jittery credit markets is the exposed flank.
A Balance Sheet Built on Debt
The scale of the borrowing is the place to start. SoftBank is due to repay the outstanding USD 25.9 billion balance of the USD 40 billion bridge facility it raised to invest in OpenAI on September 15. The plan is to replace that short-term obligation with longer-dated debt — a textbook maturity extension, but one that lays bare how deeply the group now leans on debt service.
Days ago it placed a retail bond worth the equivalent of USD 6.3 billion at a 4.75% coupon, the top end of its pre-announced range. Next week, from September 14 to 17, CFO Yoshimitsu Goto and his team head to New York to gauge investor appetite for a possible dollar junk-bond issue from Citigroup's offices. Between USD 10 billion and USD 20 billion is under discussion, potentially including a euro tranche. That SoftBank is shopping in high-yield territory at all is telling: S&P Global rates it BB+, the highest rung of speculative grade, yet still below what the largest tech peers can command.
Where the AI Bet Gets Complicated
None of this would matter much if the underlying wagers were landing cleanly. The signs are mixed. SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary, disclosed figures in connection with an IPO that raised eyebrows: a net loss of USD 3.2 billion on revenue of just USD 139 million in the first half, a dramatic deterioration from a USD 216 million loss a year earlier. Just as striking is the admission that SB Energy is "substantially dependent" on OpenAI, both as a tenant and as an investor. Near-term revenue, project financing and development plans all hang on a single thread — OpenAI's continued success.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank Group?
That is the question shareholders ought to be asking as they watch the recent losses: is SoftBank still a diversified investment group, or has it become a leveraged bet on one company? The stock's run — up 28% over seven days and 26% over a month — shows how firmly the market has bought the AI story. An annualized volatility of 64% reveals how brittle that confidence is. Thursday's retreat is no rupture in itself, but it is a reminder that a share price up by a third in weeks, while billions in fresh debt are raised, is sensitive to any deterioration in the macro backdrop.
Meanwhile, the Operating Side Keeps Moving
Away from the financing debate, SoftBank is advancing two projects that position it beyond the investment business. Its satellite direct-to-device service, "SoftBank Starlink Direct," launches internationally on September 28, reaching users in the US through T-Mobile USA, in Canada via Rogers and in New Zealand through One NZ. A Philippine rollout with partner Globe Telecom is slated for the autumn.
Customers on SoftBank, Y!mobile Simple or LINEMO Best Plan tariffs get access at no extra charge; other plans can add an option for JPY 1,650 a month. The service initially covers only SMS, MMS, RCS and in-app data — voice calls are excluded — and requires an iPhone 13 or later running iOS 27.0 or higher. The international expansion signals that SoftBank is scaling its satellite connectivity business beyond its home market, a reminder that the group is also widening its reach in conventional telecommunications.
In parallel, SoftBank has been testing a lookup system for government staff in the city of Fujieda, Shizuoka prefecture, since June. It runs on SB Intuitions' in-house generative AI "Sarashina" combined with the "dailyAI" system, under the oversight of Japan's interior ministry, with NRI leading overall and Gravis Architects as partner. Three departments are involved: the citizens' desk, regional care and social policy. Data is processed via the Type A cloud platform and stays in Japan. Such pilots underscore a strategy of not merely financing AI technology but deploying it in the public sector — a field that could open new revenue streams beyond investment gains.
A Narrower Foundation Than the Rally Suggests
The stock now trades at EUR 37.52, roughly flat against the prior close of EUR 37.58, yet still up 29% over 30 days, with a market capitalization of about EUR 198.28 billion. A relative strength index of 72.6 flags overbought conditions — a cautionary signal given the simultaneous multi-billion-dollar financing for the OpenAI stake and annualized volatility of 63%.
The operational progress on Starlink and the government AI project delivers welcome news away from the debt debate, but it is unlikely to shift investors' underlying risk assessment against such a stretched valuation. What matters most is whether SoftBank can complete its financing plans around the OpenAI investment without friction. Between an oil-price shock, rate worries and a subsidiary with widening losses, the rally rests on a narrower foundation than the recent gains imply.
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