SoftBank's Borrowing Costs Flash Red as AI Payoff Slips Further Away
Published on 11/07/2026 at 16:03 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SoftBank's most telling signal right now isn't coming from its share price. It's coming from the market that prices the risk of the group defaulting — and that market is charging the most it has in years.
The cost of insuring SoftBank's debt against default has climbed to its highest level since October 2022. According to Markit, the spread on five-year credit default swaps widened to 462 basis points. Reuters put the figure at 466 basis points, describing a four-year high. Either way, the direction is unmistakable: protection against a SoftBank default has rarely been this expensive in recent memory.
Behind the move sits a broader unease about whether artificial intelligence can actually turn a profit, compounded by a possible slowdown in the buildout of data centres. For SoftBank specifically, the market is also weighing the extra debt taken on to fund its stake in OpenAI.
A balance sheet built on big bets
The scale of that commitment is considerable. SoftBank has poured $64.6 billion into OpenAI and holds 90% of Arm. In September it issued bonds worth $11.1 billion. Those figures explain why attention has shifted from the paper value of SoftBank's holdings to the question of how they are financed — and whether the group can keep carrying them.
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High investment can pay off handsomely if it eventually produces durable businesses. Until then, the funding has to hold. Delays on planned stock market listings stretch out the period in which capital stays locked up, narrowing the room for manoeuvre.
Two of those listings have already slipped. OpenAI's initial public offering has been pushed back to 2027. SB Energy's timetable has also moved, with the placement now expected in December or later, according to media reports.
Revenue projections without operating assets
The data-centre side of the story carries its own tension. Documents from SB Energy projected roughly $439 billion in revenue from customer contracts. At the time those figures were described, however, not a single data centre was in operation.
That gap between forecast and reality defines the investment case. The number points to a substantial business opportunity — provided the facilities actually come online and the projected revenue materialises. How solidly that can be executed, and how it gets financed in the meantime, is what matters for any valuation.
A Chinese veto on the ABB robotics deal
Adding to the list of open questions is SoftBank's planned acquisition of ABB's Chinese robotics business. China's competent security review authority has blocked the purchase. SoftBank said it remains in close contact with ABB and that both sides are working constructively on the transaction. That engagement suggests an effort to find a workable path — but the regulatory prohibition stands as a concrete mark against the bullish case.
November 10 as the next real test
SoftBank has scheduled its second-quarter results for the fiscal year 2026 on November 10, covering the six months through September 30. That date now serves as the next meaningful reference point.
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Investors will be watching how the group frames its financing position and the ratio of debt to the value of its holdings. The more convincingly SoftBank explains both the numbers and what they mean, the easier it becomes to weigh the upside against the risks. In a jittery AI climate, economic substance should be the deciding factor rather than a few encouraging trading sessions.
The two concerns flagged by the market pull in different directions. The profitability question goes to whether the investments generate real economic value. A slower data-centre rollout would instead affect the pace of development. What counts, then, is whether SoftBank offers a credible account of both when it reports.
For now, caution carries the stronger argument. SoftBank needs results that stand up to scrutiny and progress on its outstanding transaction questions. A convincing set of figures on November 10 — one that answers the worries now embedded in its credit costs — would brighten the picture. Until then, the borrowing market is doing the talking.
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