SoftBank's OpenAI Bet Is Fully Funded — Now Comes the Hard Part
Published on 10/10/2026 at 15:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SoftBank has stopped talking about what it might spend on OpenAI and started living with what it already has. Vision Fund 2 closed the final tranche of its additional OpenAI investment on October 1, completing the previously announced USD 30.0 billion commitment in full. Add in earlier outlays, and the Japanese group's cumulative stake in the AI developer stands at USD 64.6 billion, equal to roughly 13% of the company.
That closing shifts the debate. The question for shareholders is no longer whether SoftBank can assemble the capital — it clearly can — but whether OpenAI's commercial trajectory justifies the sums already committed. Fresh fundraising headlines do nothing to answer that.
A Gulf Fund, Still in the Talking Stage
Reuters reported this week that CEO Masayoshi Son is courting investors in the Gulf region for as much as USD 100 billion to seed a new AI-focused vehicle, one that would acquire established businesses and retrofit them with artificial intelligence. The news agency, citing the Financial Times and people familiar with the matter, said it could not independently verify the report, and SoftBank declined to comment.
The distinction matters. Talks with potential backers can widen a company's options; they do not constitute secured capital or proof that the resulting investments will pay off. Treating the fund as an accomplished fact skips precisely the checks that matter most.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank Group?
Two Revenue Numbers, One Sensitive Stock
Investor nerves were on display Thursday, when Reuters reported a drop in SoftBank shares following an FT account that OpenAI's annualized revenue was running about USD 20 billion below previously signaled levels. The figure stood near USD 50 billion at the end of September, against earlier estimates approaching USD 70 billion. The gap stems largely from accounting for cloud-partner revenue on a net rather than gross basis — not a collapse in underlying demand.
Bloomberg later reported that growth in enterprise customers could lift annualized revenue to USD 70 billion or more by December. The two accounts should not be netted against each other. A shortfall versus earlier guidance is not the same thing as declining sales, and a possible higher run rate by December is not a delivered result. SoftBank shares recouped part of their early losses after the Bloomberg report — a reminder of how tightly the stock now tracks shifting revenue assumptions.
Sarawak, OPay and the Shape of the Expansion
Operationally, SoftBank is widening its footprint. On Saturday the group, Grab Holdings and PETROS signed a framework agreement to explore a joint platform for AI and digital infrastructure in the Malaysian state of Sarawak. The plan sets out a phased road map covering computing power, robotics and talent development, with SoftBank contributing semiconductor and AI architecture expertise and PETROS bringing regional energy resources — including access to Sarawak's gas road map and the Kuching Low-Carbon Hub, both relevant to powering data centers.
A listing could provide a nearer-term test of market appetite. OPay, the Nigerian payments provider backed by SoftBank, filed on Friday for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. The company more than doubled first-half revenue to USD 467.1 million and posted a net profit of USD 90.9 million. The deal's pricing range and size will show how receptive investors are to assets from the SoftBank orbit.
The Bill Behind the Ambition
Funding all of this is not cheap. Last month SoftBank placed USD 11.1 billion in high-yield bonds, paying yields of as much as 9.75%. It has said it will redeem its euro-denominated notes carrying a 2.875% coupon due 2027 in full at par, but the broader rate environment remains demanding.
SoftBank Group at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Skeptics are not hard to find. Jefferies strategist Chris Wood has warned of possible capital destruction in Western AI investment, arguing returns may fail to keep pace with the infrastructure spending boom. Bain's math underscores the gap: the global AI industry would need to generate USD 6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031, while current applications point to only USD 1.2 trillion to USD 1.8 trillion.
The stock has felt the strain, down 13% over the past 30 days, though it closed Friday's German session at EUR 32.27, up 1.0% on the day. SoftBank has scheduled its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings presentation for November 10, 2026, covering the six months to September 30, 2026 — a more sober checkpoint than the size of any prospective fund. What would move the narrative now is not another capital announcement, but evidence that the money already spent is earning its keep.
Ad
SoftBank Group Stock: New Analysis - 10 October
Fresh SoftBank Group information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
