SpaceX Braces for a Defining Week as Lock-Up Expiry Looms Over First Earnings
Published on 08/04/2026 at 15:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The euphoria of June's record-breaking debut on Wall Street feels like a distant memory for SpaceX investors. Barely two months into its life as a public company, the space and satellite giant is confronting a gauntlet of challenges that will test whether its ambitious growth narrative can withstand the mechanics of the market.
The immediate pressure point arrives Thursday, when a lock-up period covering employee shares expires. Roughly 911.5 million shares — about 12 percent of the company, valued at approximately $104 billion as of Monday — will become tradable for the first time. That influx could more than double the free float, a prospect that has short sellers circling with unusual conviction.
A Bearish Bet That Keeps Building
The positioning against the stock is striking. Short interest stands at roughly 34 percent of the free float, and sellers who have been pressing their bets since the IPO are sitting on paper gains of around $8.3 billion. The stock has shed roughly half its value since its post-listing peak, with a 29.29 percent decline over the past 30 days alone.
The selling pressure has been relentless enough to push the shares to a 52-week low of 91.04 euros in German trading on Monday. Tuesday brought some relief — the stock climbed 2.90 percent to 102.18 euros — but the bounce looks tentative rather than decisive. The relative strength index sits at 37.1, edging toward oversold territory, though the stock remains just 9.07 percent above its recent trough.
Musk's own holdings remain insulated from the immediate wave: under the lock-up rules, he cannot sell his stake for another 366 days.
The Earnings Picture: Starlink Carries, AI Bleeds
The quarterly results due after Tuesday's close on Wall Street are expected to paint a familiar picture. Starlink, the satellite internet division, remains the engine of the business — it generated 61 percent of 2025 revenue and is the only profitable segment. Analysts project second-quarter Starlink revenue of roughly $3.82 to $3.83 billion, a gain of about 52 percent year over year, with operating profit near $1.42 billion. That would build on the first quarter, when the division posted $1.19 billion in operating income on $3.26 billion in revenue.
The artificial intelligence segment tells a different story. In the first quarter, it produced just $818 million in revenue against an operating loss of approximately $2.46 billion. The consensus for the second quarter points to group revenue between $6.8 and $6.9 billion, with a per-share loss of 23 to 29 cents. That follows a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter on $4.7 billion in revenue. For the full year 2025, SpaceX reported a loss of roughly $5.0 billion on $18.7 billion in sales.
The capital demands of the AI push are staggering. Investment spending is expected to climb to around $13 billion in the second quarter, with more than $10 billion earmarked for AI infrastructure alone — a multiple of last year's figure. Two anchor customers provide some revenue visibility: Anthropic is committed to paying $1.25 billion monthly for computing capacity through May 2029, while Alphabet adds $920 million monthly over three years. Both contracts, however, carry 90-day cancellation clauses, a detail that tempers the enthusiasm.
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Starship Progress Amid Setbacks
On the hardware front, SpaceX reported a test flight on July 24 that achieved a first: deploying V3-generation satellites in space. The milestone was tempered by a failed controlled landing of the booster stage, underscoring the experimental nature of the program.
Wall Street's Widest Split Yet
The analyst community has rarely been this divided on a mega-cap name. Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 price target — which would imply a market valuation approaching $4 trillion — but acknowledges the stock could slide to $100 if the market turns against the AI segment. At the opposite end, Morningstar's Nicolas Owens sees the shares as significantly overvalued, pegging fair value at just $63. Phillip Securities launched coverage with a sell rating and a $75 target, arguing that while the launch business is dominant and satellite internet is growing quickly, the AI ambitions remain speculative.
The consensus across 34 analysts lands at "buy" with an average price target of roughly $233 to $236.71, though the range of individual targets — from $62 to $800 — reveals how little agreement actually exists beneath the surface. The gap between the average target and the current price reflects two competing narratives: one of a dominant long-term player in rocketry and satellite connectivity, the other of a company whose diversification into AI has stretched its valuation to a point where the risk-reward no longer makes sense.
A Complication From the Tesla Front
Adding another layer of intrigue, the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla is exploring a separation of its China business — a move that could potentially pave the way for a merger with SpaceX. Musk dismissed the report, and the logistics would be fraught regardless: SpaceX derived roughly a fifth of its revenue from US federal agencies in 2025, and closer ties to Tesla's China operations would inevitably raise regulatory questions.
For traders, Tuesday evening's earnings call will be about more than just the numbers. Management's commentary on Starship commercialization and the path to profitability for the newly integrated AI division will carry as much weight as the headline figures. With the lock-up expiry just two days later, the market is bracing for a week that could redefine the stock's trajectory — in either direction.
