SpaceX Braces for a Pivotal Week: Fresh Pentagon Cash Meets a Lock-Up Wave
Published on 07/31/2026 at 11:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The timing could hardly be more awkward. Just as SpaceX collects another billion-dollar check from the US military, the company is hurtling toward what many traders consider its most consequential week since going public — a first earnings report as a listed company, followed days later by the release of more than 900 million shares from insider lock-up restrictions.
The stock closed Friday at €99.00, up 1.5 percent, but that modest bounce does little to mask the recent damage. The shares remain just 5.15 percent above their 52-week low of €94.15, a level touched as recently as July 28. Over the past month, the equity has shed 28.46 percent, with the 14-day RSI at 34.7 pointing to oversold conditions.
A $1.6 Billion Vote of Confidence From the Space Force
The Pentagon pipeline continues to reward Elon Musk's rocket and satellite empire. The US Space Force awarded SpaceX contracts worth $1.6 billion on Wednesday, covering 18 Falcon-9 missions slated to fly by the end of 2027. The payloads: Pentagon satellites designed for detection and tracking of airborne objects. The award, split into two task orders under the Space Force's central procurement program, pits SpaceX against United Launch Alliance, Blue Origin and other domestic providers for lucrative national security launches.
At roughly $89 million per launch, the deal reinforces a launch segment that generated $4.1 billion in revenue and $653 million in EBITDA last year. It also marks the first contract issued since the Space Force raised its procurement ceiling for the NSSL program to $17 billion. Eric Zarybnisky, a Space Force acquisition official, hailed the process in a press release as an "unprecedented two-month procurement period."
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The fresh award extends an already formidable run of government business. SpaceX has collected at least $7 billion in defense contracts this year alone, much of it tied to the Trump administration's "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative — a multi-year project with a total price tag of roughly $185 billion in which Musk's operations play a central role.
Yet the deepening reliance on one supplier has not gone unnoticed. Several US lawmakers have voiced concerns for years about the Pentagon's dependence on a single provider, even as the Space Force insists it wants to foster more competition in the space sector.
The Lock-Up Clock Is Ticking
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas describes the coming days as a moment of truth for SpaceX short sellers. Following the Q2 results, more than 930 million shares — worth around $100 billion — become tradable on August 6. By January 2027, Jonas estimates that figure could swell to nearly four billion shares.
Jonas points to potential upside in areas like additional compute capacity exceeding two gigawatts and expanding cloud partnerships, but he also flags risks tied to capital expenditures north of $50 billion and the possibility of further fundraising. Despite those reservations, Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target. The broader analyst consensus stands at 23 buy ratings, six holds and a single sell, with an average target of $239.04.
The first quarterly report as a public company, due August 4, should provide clarity on the operational trajectory. Last year, SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion on revenue of $18.7 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue reached $4.7 billion against a loss of $4.3 billion. Starlink, meanwhile, remains profitable and grew roughly 50 percent year over year.
Tesla Merger Chatter Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty
A Wall Street Journal report on Thursday injected fresh speculation into the mix: Tesla management is reportedly exploring a separation from its China business to clear the path for a potential combination with SpaceX. Options under consideration include a spin-off, a sale, or shuttering the Shanghai plant, which produces more than half of all Tesla deliveries, according to the report.
The logic is straightforward — SpaceX's status as a US military contractor makes a China presence within the corporate group a regulatory headache. Musk dismissed the report as "fake news" in comments to Reuters, though he had already acknowledged growing overlap between the two companies during Tesla's earnings call in late July. JPMorgan analysts see Chinese approval processes as a practical bottleneck to any merger, while SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell has reportedly noted that a combination could simplify Musk's life.
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For shareholders, the debate adds yet another variable to an already fraught stretch. The annualized 30-day volatility now stands at 65.19 percent, reflecting just how violently the stock has swung since its June debut. The shares touched an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16 before the steep descent that followed.
What to Watch
The near-term picture offers little respite. The stock remains down 2.21 percent on the week despite Friday's gain, and the convergence of earnings, the lock-up expiration and the unresolved Tesla question suggests wide trading ranges will persist.
On the regulatory front, the FAA has proposed easing environmental restrictions on commercial launches — a move drawing criticism from environmental groups but one that could accelerate approval timelines for future Starship flights.
For now, investors are left weighing a defense pipeline that keeps growing against a supply of shares that is about to do the same. The next few sessions will show which force wins out.
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