SpaceX's AI Ambition Faces Its First Earnings Reality Check
Published on 08/13/2026 at 13:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of SpaceX's debut earnings report tell two very different stories, and investors have spent the past week trying to decide which one matters more.
Revenue is surging at a pace that would make most public companies envious. The bottom line, however, remains firmly in the red, and the scale of capital spending has rattled even the most bullish observers. It's a tension that has produced one of the more volatile stretches for any newly listed stock in recent memory.
The Growth Engine Shifts From Satellites to Servers
For the second quarter, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92 percent from $4.1 billion in the year-ago period and ahead of analyst expectations. The headline number, though, masks a dramatic internal shift. The connectivity division, anchored by Starlink, contributed $4.29 billion — roughly half of total revenue. But the artificial intelligence segment is closing the gap fast, posting $2.56 billion in sales, a 247 percent jump year over year.
That trajectory is precisely what Elon Musk outlined to employees at a recent all-hands meeting. The CEO predicted AI revenue would surpass every other business line as soon as September, with the gap widening considerably by the fourth quarter. His longer-term forecast is even more striking: within four to five years, he expects artificial intelligence to account for 99 percent of the company's total value.
The company is backing that rhetoric with action. SpaceX AI launched Grok 4.6 on Thursday, a model aimed at advanced programming tasks that scored 61 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, putting it on par with GPT-5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5. The model is available through platforms including Cursor, Grok Build, OpenRouter and Vercel, priced from $2 per million input tokens. Musk also told staff that Grok would be trained on all internal SpaceX data, referring to employees as "the parents of the AI."
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The Cost of Ambition
The spending required to fund this pivot is staggering. Capital expenditures hit $18.37 billion in the quarter — more than six times the $2.83 billion recorded a year earlier — with the company saying 86 percent of that went into AI infrastructure. The investment binge left SpaceX with a net loss of $541 million, an improvement from the $1.01 billion loss in the year-ago quarter but still a clear sign that profitability remains elusive. On a per-share basis, the loss came to $0.09.
To fund the next phase, SpaceX is planning a bond issue of at least $20 billion to refinance an existing bridge loan and pay for additional data center capacity. The company has also struck a $6.3 billion computing deal with Reflection that calls for monthly payments of $150 million through 2029. A separate partnership with Nvidia for data center chips was announced alongside the earnings report.
A Stock Caught in the Whiplash
The market's reaction has been anything but calm. After gaining 9.4 percent in regular trading, the stock tumbled roughly 7 percent in after-hours trading as investors digested the capex figures. In the days that followed, media reports cited declines of 8 to 12 percent, with the scale of AI-related spending overshadowing the growth numbers. The narrative was clear: revenue is rising, but so is the bill.
The sell-off proved short-lived. Bloomberg reported a two-day rally of about 23 percent that added more than $327 billion to the company's market capitalization. By the start of this week, shares had climbed back above the $135 IPO price. In Germany, the stock was trading at €128.20, up 1.3 percent on the day and 29 percent higher over a seven-day stretch.
Even after the rebound, the stock sits 34 percent below its 52-week high of $194.46, reached in June. A relative strength index of 58 suggests the stock isn't overbought, though the annualized volatility of 92 percent is a reminder of just how much uncertainty surrounds the shares.
The Cursor Deal Is the Linchpin
Much of the bullish thesis rests on the planned acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind the Cursor code editor, for roughly $60 billion in stock. The deal, expected to close in the third quarter, is central to Morgan Stanley's outlook. The bank reaffirmed its $300 price target and sees a bull case of $600 if the acquisition delivers on expectations. Morgan Stanley projects Cursor will generate $8 billion in annual revenue by the end of this year and $33 billion by 2030. In a bear case, the bank sees the stock at just $75 — a spread that underscores how much of the valuation depends on execution.
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Not everyone shares the optimism. Daiwa cut its price target from $175 to $140 and maintains a neutral stance. Investor Nick Huber is far more bearish, with a price target of just $25. Argus, by contrast, upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy on August 7 with a $160 target, arguing the AI investments could pay off over the long term.
Lock-Up Expiry Adds Another Layer
Adding to the uncertainty, more than 900 million shares became freely tradable on August 6 as the lock-up period expired — the first major opportunity for insiders to sell since the IPO. Whether that creates additional downward pressure is a question that will only be answered in the coming weeks.
Musk, meanwhile, continues to sketch out an expansive vision. He reiterated plans to grow the Starlink constellation from roughly 11,000 satellites to 100,000, which he says could handle more than 90 percent of global internet traffic.
For now, the central question for investors is straightforward: can the AI revenue growth Musk has promised materialize quickly enough to justify the spending? The next quarterly report will offer the first real test of whether the numbers can keep pace with the narrative.
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