SpaceX's Earnings Debut Collides With a Historic Share-Flood — and a Record Short Bet
Published on 08/04/2026 at 19:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
When SpaceX finally opens the books to public investors for the first time since its June listing, it will do so with the largest wave of sellable shares in financial history already breaking on the horizon. The timing could hardly be more fraught: Tuesday's inaugural earnings call lands just 48 hours before a lock-up expiry that frees up to 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $116 billion.
The market's response on Tuesday was a sharp rebound, with the stock climbing 6.53 percent to €105.78. That bounce, however, does little to mask the damage done since the summer. The shares remain nearly half below their June record of €194.46, having touched a fresh 52-week low of €91.04 just a day earlier.
Starlink's Dominance Is Squeezing Out External Customers
Part of Tuesday's move traces back to a Reuters report from August 4, which detailed just how thoroughly SpaceX's own satellite internet ambitions have come to define its launch manifest. Roughly 79 percent of all Falcon 9 launches are now dedicated to Starlink missions, up from 54 percent in 2020.
The knock-on effect for the wider space industry is significant. At least seven satellite operators have been informed that Falcon 9 capacity is effectively booked out through 2028 or 2029 for most mission types. SpaceX attributes the squeeze to its pivot toward Starship, the next-generation rocket that is expected to absorb the heavy lifting for Starlink's expansion and eventually free up Falcon 9 slots for outside clients.
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A First Earnings Call With a Heavy Backdrop
Tuesday's conference call, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. US Eastern Time, marks the company's first public investor engagement since the listing. Ahead of the release, a net loss of roughly $1.9 billion for the quarter has been circulating. But the more pressing questions are likely to center on Starlink's profitability and the status of Starship's 13th flight.
Analysts also expect scrutiny of SpaceX's spending discipline. The company is currently burning nearly two dollars for every dollar it earns, with capital flowing heavily into AI data centers and the Starship program. Wall Street's consensus calls for second-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion — a notable jump from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter of 2026 — alongside a loss of 26 cents per share.
The investment figures tell their own story. Capital expenditures are projected at around $12.94 billion for the quarter, up from $10.1 billion previously, while adjusted EBITDA is expected at roughly $2.10 billion. That puts planned spending at more than six times operating earnings.
Three Segments, Three Divergent Trajectories
SpaceX now reports across three distinct business lines: Space, Connectivity, and AI. Starlink-led Connectivity remains the only consistently profitable segment. The AI division is growing quickly but consuming enormous amounts of capital — generating $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 while posting an operating loss of $6.4 billion.
Starlink's subscriber metrics will draw particular attention. The service ended the first quarter with around 10.3 million subscribers, more than double the 5 million recorded a year earlier. Average revenue per user, however, has slipped from $86 to $66 per month over the same period.
The Shorts Are Piling In Like Never Before
The positioning ahead of these events is remarkable by any standard. Short interest has climbed to 219.3 million shares, worth approximately $24.6 billion — surpassing the bearish bets against Tesla, Elon Musk's other publicly traded vehicle.
Sam Pierson, research director at S3 Partners, frames the short thesis succinctly: the wager is less about the quarterly numbers and more about the lock-up release. The prevailing view is that no earnings surprise would be substantial enough to absorb the sheer volume of newly tradable shares.
The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of roughly 14 percent, implying a range of about $94 to $126 from current levels.
Analyst opinions, meanwhile, are sharply divided. Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum has initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating and a $75 price target, arguing that the valuation rests on the AI business rather than its actual results. Bernstein takes the opposite view, maintaining a Buy recommendation with a $239 target, citing Starship's central role in the valuation alongside semiconductor access, regulatory approvals, and compute capacity.
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Beyond the Numbers: A Lunar Impact and Crew-13
Operationally, SpaceX remains in the headlines for reasons unrelated to its stock. A discarded Falcon 9 upper stage from a January 2025 mission is on a collision course with the moon. The roughly 4,000-kilogram stage is expected to strike the lunar surface on Wednesday, August 5, at approximately 8,700 kilometers per hour. The impact is unintentional, though scientists view it as a rare opportunity to study impact physics and lunar geology.
NASA and SpaceX also confirmed on August 3 that the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station remains on schedule for a mid-September launch. The Dragon capsule is fully integrated, and the Falcon 9 first stage previously used for Crew-12 is undergoing routine maintenance.
The Real Test Comes Thursday
With a relative strength index of 43.6, the stock sits in neutral territory — neither overbought nor oversold. But the lock-up expiry on August 6 is expected to inject fresh volatility. Pierson notes that short sellers holding positions into next week are currently paying slightly elevated borrowing costs, though the lending market should ease considerably afterward.
The combination of Tuesday's earnings and Thursday's share release constitutes the first genuine stress test of SpaceX's public-market valuation. With annualized volatility at 58 percent, this remains a stock for the stout-hearted — and the next 48 hours will reveal just how much conviction the market's bulls and bears truly have.
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