SpaceX's First Earnings Report Arrives With a Trillion Dollars in Market Value Already Erased
Published on 07/29/2026 at 20:20 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are staggering by any measure. SpaceX has shed more than $1 trillion in market capitalization since hitting its post-IPO peak on June 16, when shares touched $225.64 after debuting at $135 just days earlier. The stock now trades in a range of roughly $110 to $116 on the Nasdaq, while in German trading it slipped another 3.61 percent on Wednesday to €98.59 — a level that puts the Relative Strength Index at 33.6, deep in oversold territory. For investors who bought at the offering price, the paper losses are already substantial.
The catalyst for the sell-off is a two-pronged event sequence that begins on August 4, when SpaceX delivers its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $6.9 billion and a loss of about $0.28 per share. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up agreement expires for 911.5 million shares held by insiders and early backers, suddenly making a massive block of equity tradable. Elon Musk’s personal stake remains locked until June 2027, but the sheer volume of newly available stock has traders bracing for volatility. The options market is pricing in a swing of roughly 15 percent on earnings day, and implied volatility sits at 122 — among the highest readings in the S&P 500.
Short sellers have piled into the chaos. According to S3 Partners, bearish bets against SpaceX now total $26 billion, representing roughly 35 percent of the freely tradable float. Since the June IPO, those short sellers have already booked an estimated $7.3 billion in profits, making SpaceX the second-most profitable short position of the year after Tesla. Elon Musk has publicly warned short sellers, but the rhetoric has done little to stem the selling pressure. Wall Street is responding with structured products: banks including Morgan Stanley, Marex Group, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and RBC are preparing capital-protected certificates that cap upside in exchange for downside buffers of up to 50 percent — a clear signal of how deeply uncertainty is now priced into the stock.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The analyst community is fractured to an unusual degree. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it a buy, and a separate count shows 27 out of 28 in the buy camp. The consensus price target stands at roughly $239.04, but the range is breathtaking: from $62 at the low end to $800 at the high end. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reaffirmed his overweight rating with a $300 target, pointing to expected progress in the AI business, including computing capacity exceeding two gigawatts next year. He warns, however, that if the stock falls below $100, the market would effectively be assigning zero value to the AI operations built around Cursor — acquired for $60 billion — and the Grok product. Morningstar takes the opposite view with a sell rating and a fair value of just $63, while Raymond James sits at the optimistic extreme with $800. Jim Cramer told CNBC he is bullish long-term but advised investors against building large positions before the lock-up expires, noting that AI compute contracts with Anthropic and Alphabet carry 90-day cancellation clauses. Investor Gary Black expects the stock to slide below $100, while Ross Gerber views the weakness as a buying opportunity and Cathie Wood is said to have added to her position.
Operationally, SpaceX delivered a bright spot on July 24 during Test Flight 13, when the Starship upper stage achieved its first intact soft water landing in the Indian Ocean after deploying 20 next-generation Starlink satellites. The vehicle remained buoyant for days and continued transmitting telemetry data; Musk has announced a recovery ship. The Super Heavy first stage, however, impacted hard in the Gulf of Mexico. The business picture remains mixed: Starlink generated $1.19 billion in profit during the first quarter, while the AI division posted a $2.47 billion loss. Revenue growth slowed to 15 percent in the first quarter of 2026, and the company ended 2025 with a net loss of $4.9 billion on $18.7 billion in sales.
Adding a regulatory dimension, the Federal Aviation Administration this week proposed a rule that would allow exemptions from 13 federal laws, including the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act, with the goal of accelerating commercial rocket launch approvals. Current permitting can take up to 36 months. SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025 and has set a target of up to 10,000 launches per year within five years. The company was fined $150,000 in 2024 for Clean Water Act violations. Environmental groups, including the Center for Biological Diversity, have already pledged legal challenges, calling the proposal an inappropriate concession to the industry.
Whether the August 4 earnings report and the subsequent lock-up expiry will trigger stabilization or another wave of selling remains the dominant question. The annualized volatility of 65.13 percent underscores just how nervous the trading has become, and with short interest at unusually high levels for a company of this size, the next two weeks will test whether SpaceX can reclaim any of the ground it has lost since June.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 29 July
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