SpaceX's Lock-Up Calendar Meets a Rare Sell Rating as Analysts Split on the Rocket Giant's Next Act
Published on 08/22/2026 at 12:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The trading week ending Friday left SpaceX shareholders with a familiar feeling: whiplash. The stock clawed back 2.1 percent to close at €117.20, but that rebound did little to erase the damage from a midweek slide that pushed the seven-day loss to 3.1 percent. The culprit was the second scheduled release of locked-up shares since the company's public listing — a supply event the market had been bracing for, and one that still managed to sting.
Roughly 319 million Class A shares became tradable on Thursday, representing the calendar-based tranche tied to the 70th day after the IPO. It follows an earlier unlock of approximately 912 million shares on August 6, which passed with surprising ease — the stock actually gained more than 6 percent that day, even after tumbling nearly 14 percent the session before to hit an all-time low. This time around, the reaction was more subdued but unmistakably negative, with the shares dipping as much as 5.49 percent intraday. News of fresh competition in the rocket business added to the pressure on an already thin free float.
The supply pipeline, however, is far from empty. Another tranche of roughly 319 million shares becomes tradable on September 9, with additional releases scheduled for September 24, October 9, and October 24 before the full 180-day lock-up period expires on December 8. Elon Musk's stake — the single largest block — remains locked until June 2027, insulated from the staggered schedule.
Most of the newly tradable shares sit with executives, employees, and early backers. Given that the stock has fallen roughly 40 percent from its post-IPO peak, those holders may have little appetite for immediate selling — a release permits a sale, it does not compel one. But the limited float amplifies swings in both directions, and the market already knows more supply is coming.
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The share count is also growing through acquisitions. SpaceX closed its purchase of Cursor (Anysphere) on August 14, issuing 389,289,254 new Class A shares in the deal — worth around $60 billion at the prevailing price. By 2027, roughly 88 percent of the company's 13 billion shares are expected to have exited lock-up restrictions.
A Wall Street Schism
The supply overhang is colliding with sharply divergent views on valuation. Bernstein's Douglas Harned raised his price target to $248 on Friday, up from $239, citing the long-term value of the Starship program and potential growth in orbital data centers. William Blair, meanwhile, reaffirmed its buy rating the same day, pointing to SpaceX's leadership in reusable rocketry and a planned $16.8 billion chip-fabrication venture with Tesla.
On the other side of the ledger sits a rare sell call. The DZ Bank initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, with analyst Markus Leistner flagging projected capital expenditures of $800 billion through 2030 tied to the company's AI and space ambitions. Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum had already confirmed his own Sell rating with a $75 target on August 18.
In between, the bulls remain vocal. Clear Street's Brian Dobson reiterated his Buy rating with a $217 target — implying upside of more than 50 percent — and counts SpaceX among his top aerospace picks. UBS's John Hodulik also stands by his Buy recommendation at $210, citing strong long-term growth prospects for Starlink and the company's other technology businesses.
Fundamentals Tell a Different Story
Operationally, the numbers paint a picture of a company scaling at breakneck speed. Second-quarter 2026 revenue jumped 92 percent year over year to $7.81 billion, though the bottom line showed a net loss of $541 million. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion funneled into AI infrastructure. Musk confirmed at an internal meeting that Starlink now counts over 13 million end customers and 22 million monthly mobile users.
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Institutional conviction remains notable. Nvidia held roughly 122.76 million SpaceX shares worth about $21 billion as of June 30, per a regulatory filing, while Alphabet reported 551.2 million shares valued at around $94.2 billion. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added to its position on Friday, buying just over 205,000 shares across several ETFs for approximately $27.4 million.
The technical picture offers little directional clarity. The stock sits about 5.4 percent below its 50-day moving average, with an RSI near 51 signaling neutral momentum. It remains roughly 40 percent off the 52-week high of €194.46 set in mid-June, yet stands about 29 percent above the August low of €91.04. With annualized volatility running at 91 percent, sharp moves in either direction are more rule than exception.
The next test arrives September 9, when another wave of locked-up shares hits the market. Until the lock-up period fully unwinds on December 8, SpaceX's free float will remain a moving target — and the debate between its bulls and bears shows no sign of settling.
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