SpaceX's Lock-Up Era Creates a Wall Street Rorschach Test as Analysts Stretch Targets From $140 to $300
Published on 08/10/2026 at 21:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of SpaceX's second-quarter report were unambiguous. The interpretation of what those numbers mean for the stock going forward could hardly be more fractured.
A 92 percent revenue surge to $7.8 billion, a near-tripling of adjusted EBITDA to $3.5 billion, and a narrowing net loss to $541 million — all of it landed well ahead of consensus. Yet the analyst community has responded with a dizzying range of conclusions, pushing price targets anywhere from $140 to $300 as the market wrestles with whether SpaceX's massive AI infrastructure buildout is a growth accelerant or a profit drag.
The split was on full display Friday. Argus Research upgraded the shares from Hold to Buy with a $160 target, citing "robust growth" in computing capacity. Bernstein went further, lifting its target to $248 from $239 while reaffirming an Outperform rating. A day earlier, Morgan Stanley had reiterated its Overweight stance with a bullish $300 target, while Piper Sandler moved in the opposite direction, trimming its target from $156 to $140.
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The AI Bet That Divides Wall Street
At the heart of the disagreement sits a single question: how much should investors pay for a business that is simultaneously compounding revenue at triple-digit rates and burning through cash to build out next-generation computing infrastructure?
The AI segment tells both sides of the story. Revenue in the division exploded 247 percent to $2.6 billion, and the unit's adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time. But the segment still posted an operating loss of $1.3 billion, underscoring the cost of the buildout.
That investment burden is only set to grow. SpaceX has committed to the jointly announced Terafab chip facility in Texas with Tesla, along with planned Gigabay installations in Florida and Texas. CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is on track to reach an annualized recurring revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026, and has already secured an additional $6.7 billion in cloud revenue under contract for the six-month period starting in October.
For the second quarter, the company posted revenue of $7.8 billion against a consensus estimate of $6.9 billion. The net loss of $541 million, or $0.09 per share, came in better than the expected range, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Management's full-year 2026 outlook calls for revenue approaching $100 billion.
A Supply Wave That Didn't Break the Stock
The earnings beat came with an unusual caveat: the stock actually fell 7 percent in after-hours trading Tuesday, a move that analysts attributed to the looming expiration of insider lock-up agreements rather than any disappointment in the fundamentals.
Thursday marked the first major unlock — 911.5 million insider shares with a notional value of roughly $100 billion became tradable. Conventional wisdom would suggest a supply shock of that magnitude would hammer the stock. Instead, shares closed up 6.1 percent on volume of 255 million shares, the heaviest trading day since the IPO week.
The resilience may reflect a simple dynamic: much of the selling pressure had already been priced in, and the earnings beat gave holders reason to hold rather than dump.
More unlocks are on the horizon. Another 319 million shares become eligible on August 20, followed by roughly 700 million in September and a similar amount in October. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion shares, by contrast, remain locked until June 2027.
The lock-up schedule has created a peculiar trading environment. The stock currently sits at €114.72, having recovered 15.41 percent over seven days — yet it remains 41.01 percent below its 52-week high. The secondary source pegs the stock at €115.00 with a 15.69 percent weekly recovery and a 9.59 percent monthly decline, a slight discrepancy likely reflecting different snapshot times. On a monthly basis, the shares are still down roughly 9.6 percent, a reminder that the volatility of recent weeks hasn't fully subsided.
Insider Moves and Operational Tempo
The lock-up period has already produced at least one notable insider decision. Jessie Bates III, an early investor and professional football player who acquired his stake for $150,000 in 2022, announced Thursday he would sell his entire position — a stake now worth approximately $1.5 million.
Meanwhile, the operational machine keeps humming. A Falcon 9 launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Saturday, deploying 24 more Starlink satellites, following the 90th Falcon 9 flight of 2026 on Tuesday. The Starlink constellation now exceeds 12,600 launched satellites, with nearly 10,900 active in orbit.
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A planned launch of the Starlink 10-19 mission from Cape Canaveral was scrubbed due to weather and rescheduled for Tuesday. Late August is expected to bring the 14th test flight of the Starship system, which would mark the first deployment of operational Starlink V3 satellites to orbit, along with an attempted catch of the upper stage at the launch tower.
For investors, the near-term path remains dictated less by operational milestones than by the calendar of upcoming lock-up expirations. The August, September, and October tranches will continue to test whether the market's appetite for SpaceX shares can absorb the steady drip of newly tradable stock — and whether the bulls' confidence in the AI story holds up under the weight of the investment cycle.
