SpaceX's Lock-Up Expiry Meets a Wall Street Valuation Standoff
Published on 08/06/2026 at 19:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The expiration of SpaceX's first post-IPO lock-up period on Thursday has unleashed roughly 911.5 million shares onto the open market — a block worth somewhere between $100 billion and $116 billion, depending on the pricing reference used. That vaults the tradable float from 639 million shares to 1.55 billion, an extraordinary expansion of supply that would normally spook even the most seasoned investors.
Yet the share price has so far shrugged off the overhang. The stock traded up 1.96 percent on the day in one pricing reference, while another showed it at €97.82, a 4.67 percent gain from the prior session. The divergence in those figures aside, the broader picture is one of resilience — at least for now. Over the past 30 days, the picture is far less flattering: the equity has shed 27.25 percent, and it still sits roughly 49.70 percent below its 52-week high.
A Clash of Fair-Value Estimates
The lock-up expiry coincides with a fresh wave of analyst recalibrations, and the resulting target-price dispersion is unusually wide. JPMorgan lifted its price objective to $240 from a prior level of $225, maintaining an Overweight rating. The bank's rationale centers on what it describes as SpaceX's "extreme vertical integration" and the potential for up to $100 billion in AI-related revenue by 2027. Goldman Sachs followed a similar path, raising its target from $205 to $220 with an unchanged buy rating, citing the company's first quarterly report as a public entity.
On the other end of the spectrum sits Morningstar, which reaffirmed its fair-value estimate of just $62 and labeled the stock significantly overvalued. The research house questions the economics of Starship's reusability and the viability of orbital data centers, arguing that the company's massive AI infrastructure investments far outstrip actual revenue from its neocloud rental business. Wells Fargo occupies something of a middle ground, trimming its target from $230 to $215 while keeping an Overweight stance, with caution tied to the company's near-sixfold increase in capital spending.
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The chasm between the most bullish and most bearish targets — $240 versus $62 — is a reminder that SpaceX now straddles three distinct investment theses: launch services, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure. Each carries its own risk profile, and the market has yet to converge on a consensus.
Growth at a Steep Price
The quarterly report that triggered this debate landed on Tuesday and painted a picture of explosive growth alongside substantial losses. Revenue for the second quarter reached $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion in the prior-year quarter, though the operating loss stood at $143 million. The gap between those figures reflects investment outlays of $18.37 billion, directed primarily at AI infrastructure and Starlink expansion.
Management used the same day to announce the acquisition of AI company Cursor for $60 billion, a deal intended to accelerate the company's own AI infrastructure buildout. CEO Elon Musk added further fuel to the bull case by projecting annual revenue could hit the trillion-dollar mark by 2030, or possibly as early as 2029. The company also guided toward a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by December.
Operations Continue at Full Throttle
Beyond the financial noise, SpaceX's operational cadence shows no signs of slowing. The company has requested that the FCC eliminate nationwide high-cost broadband subsidy programs, arguing the associated processes need modernization. Starship Flight 14 is slated for late August, with plans to deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites and attempt the first catch of the upper stage by the launch tower. That follows Flight 13 on July 24, which achieved a soft water landing of the upper stage in the Indian Ocean.
On the military side, the U.S. Department of Defense's space arm awarded a $2.29 billion contract to accelerate the satellite-based "backbone" communications network. Routine launches continue as well: a Falcon 9 lifted 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Saturday, marking the company's 90th orbital launch this year, while additional Starlink missions have flown from both Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, including payloads for AST SpaceMobile's cellular service.
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Regulatory tailwinds may also be building. The FAA proposed a rule on July 30 that would suspend certain environmental requirements — including parts of NEPA — for commercial launch and reentry licensing, with a public comment period running through the end of August. If enacted, the change could accelerate approval timelines and support even higher launch rates.
For now, investors are left to reconcile two competing narratives: the growth story that has analysts reaching for ever-higher targets, and the valuation discipline that sees a stock trading at a substantial premium to intrinsic worth. Thursday's lock-up expiry adds a third variable — a sudden flood of supply that could test whether current holders share the bulls' conviction or prefer to take profits while the market is willing to pay up.
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