SpaceX's Post-IPO Rally Accelerates as Argus Joins the Bull Camp, Yet a Wide Valuation Gulf Persists
Published on 08/07/2026 at 17:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The trading week closed with SpaceX equity extending its rebound, climbing 10.38 percent to EUR 109.88 on Friday. That advance, triggered by an Argus Research upgrade, follows a 6.55 percent gain the previous session — a day when many investors had braced for turbulence rather than a rally.
The immediate catalyst came when Argus lifted its rating from Hold to Buy, setting a price target of USD 160. The firm's rationale centers on a revenue run rate projected to approach USD 100 billion by the end of 2026, alongside what it views as a rapid payback period on the company's artificial-intelligence infrastructure outlays. The move follows a similarly bullish note from Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who argued on Thursday that the expiration of the first post-IPO lock-up period creates an attractive entry point, with a USD 300 price target set for mid-2027.
A Share Flood That Never Materialized
The market's resilience during the lock-up release has become a defining narrative. Roughly 911.5 million shares — valued at around USD 100 billion — became tradable for the first time when the initial restriction period lapsed. With only about 5 percent of total shares previously in free float, the overhang had been a persistent source of anxiety. Yet the stock advanced on the very day the floodgates opened, suggesting the feared selling pressure has yet to materialize.
That calm is reflected in technical indicators: the relative strength index sits at a neutral 41.9, while 30-day volatility remains elevated at roughly 79 percent, underscoring that large swings remain the norm. The stock nonetheless sits nearly half below its 52-week high of EUR 194.46 from June 16, following a 23.26 percent slide over the preceding month.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Earnings Beat Masks an AI Spending Question
The foundation for the recent recovery was laid Tuesday, when SpaceX delivered its first quarterly report since going public. Revenue reached USD 7.81 billion for the second quarter — a 92 percent year-over-year surge that comfortably beat the USD 6.93 billion consensus. The net loss narrowed from USD 1 billion to USD 541 million, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to USD 3.5 billion.
The headline numbers, however, obscured a spending profile that gave some investors pause. Capital expenditures hit USD 18.37 billion in the quarter — six times the prior-year level — with USD 15.83 billion funneled into AI infrastructure and data centers. Despite a USD 100 billion cash cushion, the scale of investment triggered a roughly 7 percent post-earnings dip in US trading.
The AI segment, which bundles cloud services, Grok, and X subscriptions, grew 247 percent to USD 2.56 billion. Starlink, meanwhile, doubled its paying subscriber base to 12 million, adding 1.7 million customers in the quarter alone — its strongest quarterly growth to date. Average revenue per user declined from USD 85 to USD 66 monthly, a function of international expansion. The connectivity business contributed USD 1.7 billion in operating income.
Wall Street's Valuation Standoff
The analyst community remains sharply divided over what SpaceX is worth. JPMorgan raised its price target from USD 225 to USD 240 on Tuesday, maintaining a Buy rating, evidently persuaded by Starlink's and AI's growth trajectories. Piper Sandler moved in the opposite direction the following day, trimming its target from USD 156 to USD 140 — a cut attributed explicitly to the impending increase in tradable shares and heavy investment, rather than fundamental deterioration.
The bear case finds its most prominent voice at Morningstar, which reaffirmed a fair value of USD 62 on Wednesday with only a "narrow" moat rating. The firm expressed skepticism about the probability of the more optimistic scenarios for Starship's reusability. Argus's USD 160 target and Morgan Stanley's USD 300 projection sit at the more bullish end of a spectrum that reflects genuine uncertainty about the young listing's appropriate valuation.
Institutional behavior suggests some large players see opportunity. Fisher Asset Management added to its position following the earnings release.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Pentagon Diversification and the Starship Calendar
Not all recent developments favored SpaceX. The US Space Force awarded USD 615 million in contracts on Thursday to Rocket Lab, Systems Technology Research, and an unnamed third company for aircraft-tracking satellites. The move signals a deliberate effort to reduce dependence on SpaceX, which received a USD 4.16 billion SB-AMTI award in May — a reminder that the Pentagon intends to broaden its supplier base even as SpaceX retains a central role in space operations.
Operationally, the company continues to push its test schedule. Flight 13 from Starbase in Texas concluded late July with a soft landing of the upper stage in the Indian Ocean, validating revised V3 components. Flight 14, targeted for late August, aims to deploy operational V3 Starlink satellites and attempt the first direct catch of the upper stage at the launch site. Three additional Falcon 9 launches from Florida and California are scheduled from this weekend, carrying further Starlink satellites.
Management also confirmed a partnership with Nvidia to place satellite-based computing payloads in orbit — a payload dubbed Starmind AI1 will carry Nvidia's Rubin and Vera generation chips. The company reiterated its goal of reaching a USD 100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end, a target that, if achieved, would validate the more optimistic analyst scenarios.
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