SpaceX's Rally Builds on Two Fronts: Pentagon Billions and an AI Narrative That's Splitting Wall Street
Published on 08/12/2026 at 22:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock's seven-day winning streak has been anything but subtle. After a midweek surge that pushed shares to 127.68 euros — an 11 percent single-day gain — the equity has now climbed 37 percent across the past week of trading. Yet even after that burst, the stock remains 34 percent below its 52-week peak of 194.46 euros, a reminder of just how far the pullback had run. The distance from the 91.04-euro low, by contrast, stands at 40 percent.
Wednesday's pop had a clear catalyst: the Pentagon awarded SpaceX missile-defense contracts worth 8.1 billion dollars covering the Space Data Network and the AMTI satellite constellation, which is designed to track moving aerial targets. That award extends a string of government wins, including a 1.6-billion-dollar deal announced in late July under the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program, commissioning 18 launches for communications and targeting satellites through 2027. Government work is quickly becoming a pillar alongside the company's core space operations.
The AI Story Is Driving the Debate
But the defense contracts tell only part of the story. The market's attention has shifted to SpaceX's artificial-intelligence ambitions, and that's where analysts are drawing sharply different conclusions. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jones reaffirmed an Overweight rating with a 300-dollar price target on Wednesday, arguing that AI-related revenue could surpass every other business segment by September 2026. His view leans heavily on Terafab, the joint chip-manufacturing venture with Tesla announced in early August — a facility spanning more than 100 million square feet in Grimes County, Texas, with an initial investment of 16.8 billion dollars.
The factory will produce chips for Tesla's Optimus robots and Cybercabs, as well as for SpaceX's orbital AI data centers. Notably, SpaceX energy executive Riley Trettel has said the facility will rely on gas-fired power plants and large battery storage rather than solar — a pragmatic call for a site that needs guaranteed, round-the-clock electricity.
The bull case, however, is far from unanimous. Price targets across the Street range from 200 dollars at Citi to 800 dollars at Raymond James, with J.P. Morgan at 240, Deutsche Bank at 235, Goldman Sachs at 220, Wells Fargo at 215 and UBS at 210. That dispersion reflects a genuine disagreement about how to weight the emerging AI business against the more established satellite and Starlink operations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Earnings Provided the Ammunition
The analyst commentary follows SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company, released August 4. Revenue came in at 7.8 billion dollars for the second quarter, up 92 percent year over year and comfortably ahead of the 6.93-billion-dollar consensus. The net loss of 541 million dollars, or 9 cents per share, was far better than the 26-cent loss analysts had braced for. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191 percent to 3.5 billion dollars.
Segment performance was uneven but striking. The Connectivity business grew 66 percent to 4.29 billion dollars, while the AI division surged 250 percent to 2.56 billion dollars. Space contributed 962 million dollars. Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million, though average revenue per user slipped 22 percent to 66 dollars monthly as international expansion brought in lower-spending customers. CEO Elon Musk has since pegged the broader user base higher, citing over 13 million retail customers and 22 million monthly users of Starlink Mobile.
The balance sheet tells a story of aggressive reinvestment. Cash reserves ballooned from 24.7 billion dollars in the first quarter to 93.5 billion dollars, while debt and finance leases grew from 22 billion to 36.8 billion dollars. Capital expenditures in the quarter reached 18.4 billion dollars, a figure that initially spooked investors — shares fell about 8 percent in after-hours trading on August 4 — before the wave of analyst upgrades shifted sentiment. CFO Bret Johnsen has said the AI infrastructure spending pays back in under a year, and the company is guiding toward a 100-billion-dollar annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
Lock-Ups Add a Layer of Volatility
The rally is unfolding against a backdrop of share-supply dynamics that could test investor conviction. On August 6, the first post-IPO lock-up expired, freeing 911.5 million insider and employee shares — roughly 7 percent of the total float. The stock actually rose 3.57 percent that day, closing at 138.05 dollars. A second lock-up covering 319 million shares expires August 20. The IPO itself, completed in June 2026, raised approximately 86 billion dollars.
That overhang helps explain the elevated volatility, with annualized 30-day volatility running at 92 percent. The stock's recovery from its early-August low has been swift, but it remains 35 percent below the June peak of 194.46 euros, according to the secondary data — a slightly different gap than the 34 percent cited in the primary source, reflecting minor timing differences in measurement.
Operational Milestones Keep Coming
Beyond the financial headlines, SpaceX continues to hit operational markers. The company completed its 50th launch of the year from Vandenberg Space Force Base, pushing the active satellite constellation to 10,923 units. The FAA has also closed its investigation into Starship Flight 12, accepting SpaceX's proposed corrective measures on the engine and alarm systems — a meaningful step for NASA's Artemis program, which is currently conducting cryogenic stress tests on the lunar lander.
For now, the market is betting that the combination of government contracts, AI infrastructure and Starlink's subscriber momentum can justify the valuation. The wide spread in analyst targets suggests the debate is far from settled, but the direction of travel over the past seven sessions has been unambiguous.
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