SpaceX's Routine Cargo Runs Now Underwrite a $40 Billion Bet on Orbiting AI
Published on 10/12/2026 at 10:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The most revealing number to come out of SpaceX this week isn't a valuation or a funding target — it's 237. That's how many days the Crew-12 team spent aboard the International Space Station before their Crew Dragon Freedom capsule splashed down in the Pacific off the Los Angeles coast on Thursday, closing out a rotation that once would have been treated as a technological marvel and now barely interrupts the schedule.
That schedule is crowded. NASA and SpaceX have their sights set on an October 13 liftoff for the 35th commercial resupply mission to the station, hauling more than 6,300 pounds of supplies and equipment, with docking penciled in for October 15. Turnaround times like these are the quiet economic engine behind everything else the company is attempting: government contracts that pay on a predictable cadence and, just as importantly, the operational breathing room to chase far grander designs.
From Freight Line to Orbital Platform
Those designs no longer stop at putting hardware in orbit. SpaceX wants to turn low Earth orbit into a seamless communications layer, and regulators are moving in step. Roughly a week ago, the Federal Communications Commission cleared a constellation of 15,000 satellites for direct-to-device mobile service. On top of that approval, the company struck a deal to acquire a portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired 800-MHz spectrum from Grain Management, the groundwork for building out Starlink Mobile across the United States.
The ambition doesn't end at connectivity. Reuters has reported that SpaceX is negotiating a financing package worth $40 billion to buy Nvidia AI chips — a sum that would break down into roughly $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds. Those talks are described as ongoing. The implication is hard to miss: the satellite network is being positioned not merely to relay data but to host serious computing power in orbit.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Wall Street Splits on What the Stock Is Worth
Investors are watching this transformation from launch contractor to high-tech conglomerate with markedly different conclusions. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed an Outperform rating on October 6 with a $300 price target, arguing that the market underestimates SpaceX's potential in computing and artificial intelligence and flagging the upcoming 15th Starship test flight as a near-term operational catalyst.
Susquehanna's Charles Minervino took a cooler view a day later, raising his target from $144 to $173 while sticking with a neutral stance. A target barely above the current price captures the caution that spectrum approvals and integration costs arguably warrant.
The share price reflects that tug-of-war. The stock trades at EUR 146.68 today, up a modest 1.0% on the session, and sits roughly 15% above its 50-day moving average of EUR 127.15 — a level that underscores the steady medium-term uptrend of recent weeks. Friday's close came in at EUR 145.20, comfortably above a 50-day average of EUR 126.20, yet still 25% below the 52-week high of EUR 194.46. The recovery has brought imagination back to the market; the old peak remains out of reach.
The Question Investors Can't Dodge
How much technological fantasy can a valuation absorb when the underlying business has already taken on the character of an industrial fleet operator? That's the puzzle SpaceX now presents. On one side sits a dependable shuttle service to the space station with budgeted revenue; on the other, the capital-hungry construction of a worldwide data and computing grid.
The vision of merging orbital networks with high-performance data centers is technologically compelling, but it ties up enormous resources well before the first returns from mass-market mobile service can flow. Anyone buying in is betting that SpaceX can dominate two extraordinarily capital-intensive industries — telecommunications and artificial intelligence — at the same time.
Until the semiconductor financing is finalized and the FCC rules on the spectrum contracts, volatility looks likely to persist. The long-term growth case is undeniably enormous. The valuation premium, though, now demands flawless operational execution — and the routine cargo runs are what make that execution possible.
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