SpaceX's Two-Front Test: A Starship Milestone Looms as Bernstein Sees Double the Upside
Published on 08/22/2026 at 05:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic is striking. Bernstein's price target of $248 implies SpaceX shares would need to more than double from Friday's close — yet the stock's recent drift has done little to shake the bank's conviction. The firm reaffirmed its "Buy" rating this week, pointing to the rapid scaling of the Starlink constellation as the primary catalyst for the valuation gap to close.
Friday's session offered a modest step in that direction, with shares finishing 2.1% higher at €117.20. The weekly picture, however, remains less forgiving: the stock is still down 3.1% over the past five sessions, a reminder that the post-IPO trading range has been anything but calm.
A Constellation at Critical Mass
The operational engine behind Bernstein's optimism was on full display over the weekend. A Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in the early hours of Saturday, carrying 27 additional Starlink satellites into orbit. The booster in question was flying its ninth mission — and, true to form, returned safely to a drone ship stationed in the Pacific.
For institutional investors, that recurring spectacle is the point. Each refurbished booster that flies again chips away at the per-launch cost structure, a competitive advantage that traditional aerospace incumbents have struggled to replicate. The cadence has been relentless: with the year's Falcon 9 tally now at 96 launches, roughly three-quarters of those missions have been dedicated to expanding the Starlink network.
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This week brought another threshold worth noting: the constellation has now surpassed 11,000 satellites in orbit. Days earlier, SpaceX set an operational record of its own, launching two Falcon 9 rockets — for the USSF-366 and Globalstar missions — in the shortest interval ever recorded between two orbital flights.
The Starship Question
Yet for all the Falcon 9's reliability, investor attention is shifting to the next act. Flight 14, the first genuine attempt at an orbital mission for the Starship system, is expected before the month is out. During the company's earnings call on August 4, CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline and outlined an ambitious objective: deploying upgraded Starlink satellites via Starship for the first time.
Musk also flagged a maneuver the company has never attempted — catching the rocket's upper stage at the launch pad. The plan remains contingent on regulatory approval, but success would mark a significant step toward the full reusability that underpins Starship's economics. Musk's longer-term forecast is characteristically bold: within a year, he expects Starship to launch at least once daily, possibly more.
Financial Reality Check
The Starship narrative arrived alongside SpaceX's first quarterly report as a publicly traded company, and the numbers tell a story of rapid growth still weighed down by heavy investment. Second-quarter revenue came in at $7.8 billion, nearly double the $4.1 billion reported in the same period last year. The net loss narrowed substantially to $541 million, down from $1 billion a year earlier.
The launch business remains the drag on profitability, even as it generates the headlines. The Space segment — the smallest of the company's three divisions, responsible for rocket launches — posted $962 million in revenue against an operating loss of $542 million.
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A Stock Caught Between Two Forces
The share price has been whipsawed since its market debut. Friday's close of €116.08 in the secondary article's data (or €117.20 per the primary source) leaves the stock roughly 40% below its 52-week high of €194.46 from mid-June, yet still 28% above the low of €91.04 touched in early August. That wide band underscores just how turbulent the early trading period has been.
Part of that volatility is amplified by the derivatives market. Direxion now offers both leveraged long and short products on SpaceX, alongside similar instruments tied to Tesla. Notably, the short product launched precisely as SpaceX released its first post-IPO earnings and the initial lock-up period expired — a confluence that added fuel to the stock's downward swing.
The weeks ahead present a dual test. The Starship flight, with its untried catch maneuver, carries both technical and reputational risk. Meanwhile, the gradual release of additional share tranches from the lock-up period threatens to inject further supply into the market. Bernstein's $248 target assumes the operational momentum wins out over the overhang — but the path there runs through both challenges simultaneously.
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