SpaceX's Two-Front War: AI Contracts Boom While Telecom Giants Push Back
Published on 09/30/2026 at 09:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SpaceX is discovering that its toughest battles may not be fought in orbit but in boardrooms, courtrooms, and the halls of regulators. As the company's artificial intelligence leasing business rockets toward dominance, its ambitions to disrupt terrestrial mobile communications are drawing sharp fire from the very incumbents it hopes to displace.
AT&T CEO John Stankey didn't mince words this week, telling Axios that SpaceX's mobile strategy amounts to "no viable strategy" at all. His critique questioned both the economics and the engineering behind satellite-to-phone connectivity — a pointed salvo that signals growing anxiety among traditional carriers as satellite networks edge closer to their core consumer business.
Wall Street Sees a Different Story
While Stankey questions the telecom pivot, analysts are fixated on a far more lucrative transformation unfolding inside SpaceX. TD Cowen initiated coverage Tuesday with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, predicting that AI compute leasing will eclipse all other business segments combined by early 2027.
Analyst John Blackledge forecasts $14.4 billion in AI compute leasing revenue for 2026 — roughly 35% of total company sales. That figure is projected to surge to $66 billion in 2027, representing about 58% of the top line, before potentially reaching $133 billion by 2028.
The momentum is fueled by blockbuster contracts with major technology players. Anthropic, the AI startup, has a confidential prospectus indicating potential payments to SpaceX of up to $84.5 billion through 2029 for computing capacity. Google, meanwhile, reportedly secured access to approximately 110,000 graphics processors over 32 months in a deal worth more than $30 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
UBS Bullish on Q3, But Capital Demands Loom
UBS reinforced the optimistic outlook Tuesday, maintaining its Buy rating and a $210 price target. The Swiss bank expects third-quarter 2026 revenue of $13.8 billion — about 7% above Wall Street's average estimates — with the AI segment contributing $7.6 billion of that total.
The Connectivity division, home to the Starlink network, is forecast to grow 59% to $4.9 billion. Yet the sheer scale of infrastructure spending is staggering: UBS projects $19.3 billion in capital expenditures for the quarter alone. TD Cowen anticipates $160 billion in AI-related investments for 2027 and expects free cash flow to remain negative through 2030, with debt issuance likely to climb substantially.
Legal and Regulatory Headwinds Mount
The friction extends well beyond telecom rivalries. On September 21, a federal judge rejected an attempt to temporarily block a Trump administration-proposed land swap in Texas. The deal would transfer over 700 acres of a conservation area to SpaceX while the company cedes 683 of its own acres. Environmental groups immediately vowed to continue their legal fight.
These battles — over protected land near the launch site and against objections from established network operators — illustrate how SpaceX's rapid expansion is meeting resistance in industrial and legal arenas.
Starship Progress Offers a Counterweight
Amid the regulatory and competitive noise, SpaceX notched a significant technical milestone. On Monday, the heavy-lift Starship completed its 14th test flight, delivering 26 units of the new V3 Starlink satellites into Earth orbit for the first time. An early engine failure shortened the flight but demonstrated the vehicle's fundamental capability for heavier payloads.
What It Means for Investors
The stock traded at EUR 131.68 on the European exchanges, down 0.1% on the day, sitting 32% below its 52-week high of EUR 194.46. Earlier in the week, shares had gained 3.0% to EUR 131.82, putting the price 11% above its 50-day moving average of EUR 119.17.
For investors, the central question has shifted. SpaceX has proven it can haul heavy cargo to orbit — long-term government transport contracts attest to that. The real test now lies in converting orbital superiority into profitable, terrestrially competitive mass markets.
When industry titans like AT&T openly criticize those plans, it's hardly the death knell for the ambition. It's evidence that the push into lucrative consumer markets is rattling the incumbents' comfort zone — even as AI contracts quietly rewrite the company's financial future.
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