SpaceX Shares Face a Rare Sell Call as Lock-Up Waves and a $800 Billion Capex Debate Split Wall Street
Published on 08/22/2026 at 17:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The bull-bear divide on SpaceX has rarely looked starker. On Friday, the DZ Bank initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating and a price target of just $100, warning that the company's ambitions in artificial intelligence and space could demand a staggering $800 billion in capital expenditures through 2030. Hours earlier, Bernstein's Douglas Harned lifted his target to $248, arguing the Starship program and the emerging market for orbital data centers justify a far richer valuation.
That $148 gap between the two targets captures the fundamental tension animating the stock right now: a company delivering explosive revenue growth while simultaneously absorbing an investment cycle that could test even the most patient shareholders.
A Split Screen on Wall Street
The DZ Bank call, from analyst Markus Leistner, stands as one of the most bearish on the Street. It joins Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum, who reaffirmed his own "Sell" rating with a $75 target on August 18. Cfra sits nearby at $115. On the other side, Oppenheimer remains at "Outperform" with a $250 target, while Bank of America sees $235. Daiwa and Moffett Nathanson occupy the middle ground with "Neutral" ratings at $175 and $131, respectively.
The consensus still skews positive — a "Moderate Buy" with an average target of $220.20 — but the dispersion is remarkable for a company whose operational momentum is hard to dispute.
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9 percent year over year and comfortably ahead of the $6.93 billion analysts had penciled in. The net loss came to $541 million, or $0.09 per share, narrower than expected. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion in the quarter, with $15.8 billion of that flowing into AI infrastructure alone. Musk also confirmed at an internal meeting that Starlink now counts over 13 million end customers and 22 million monthly mobile users.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The Lock-Up Overhang Keeps Building
Supply dynamics remain the dominant technical force on the stock. Thursday's release of roughly 319 million Class A shares — about seven percent of the early unlock pool — added another slug of sellable inventory. The next tranche of similar size arrives September 9, and on December 8, virtually all remaining insider shares become tradable, with the exception of Elon Musk's stake, which stays locked until June 2027.
The pattern has been consistent since the first lock-up expired on August 6, when shares initially rebounded as much as 35 percent off their lows. The second expiry on August 20 pushed the stock back down. Over the past seven trading sessions, the shares are down 3.1 percent, though they remain roughly 16 percent higher on the month and about 29 percent above the August low. The stock still sits 40 percent below its mid-June 52-week high.
Friday brought some relief — shares closed up 2.1 percent at €117.20 — but the technical picture remains muddled. The stock trades about 5.4 percent below its 50-day moving average, and an RSI of 50.8 points to no clear directional bias. With annualized volatility at 91 percent, the sharp swings in both directions look set to continue.
Cursor Deal Adds Dilution, and a New Strategic Chapter
The all-stock acquisition of AI coding firm Cursor, completed August 14, added another layer of complexity. The deal created 389.3 million new SpaceX shares, a dilution that some investors have greeted skeptically even as it signals the company's push deeper into the AI software arena. The transaction also dovetails with a planned $16.8 billion chip factory venture with Tesla, a project William Blair highlighted in its bullish note on Friday.
Bernstein's Harned, who raised his target from $239, framed the Starship program and orbital data centers as the key long-term value drivers. William Blair, meanwhile, pointed to SpaceX's leadership in reusable rockets as the foundation for its buy recommendation.
Institutional Demand Remains a Counterweight
The supply overhang is meeting steady institutional appetite. Nvidia disclosed holding roughly 122.76 million SpaceX shares worth about $21 billion as of June 30, while Alphabet reported 551.2 million shares valued at around $94.2 billion. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added more than 205,000 shares on Friday across several ETFs, spending roughly $27.4 million.
SpaceX has also signaled confidence in its access to capital, announcing plans to double its bond purchases to at least $4 billion. That move suggests the company can fund its Starship and AI ambitions without straining its balance sheet, even as the DZ Bank's $800 billion capex projection hangs over the debate.
For now, investors are left to weigh record operational growth against a heavy investment cycle, a steady drumbeat of share unlocks, and an analyst community that cannot agree on what any of it is worth. The one point of consensus: volatility is likely to remain the only constant.
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