SpaceX Shares Sink to Fresh Lows as Lock-Up Clock Ticks and First Earnings Loom
Published on 07/29/2026 at 21:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX’s stock is caught in a tug-of-war between operational triumphs and technical selling pressure, with the company’s first quarterly report since its June IPO just days away and a massive insider lock-up expiry set to follow. The shares touched a new 52-week low of €94.15 on Tuesday before recovering slightly to €101.12, extending a slide that has wiped out nearly 30% of the stock’s value in just 30 days from its mid-June record of €194.46.
The sell-off has been relentless. After debuting on the Nasdaq at $135 on June 11, SpaceX rocketed to an all-time high of $225.64 by June 16, only to surrender more than half its value in the ensuing weeks. Market observers estimate that over a trillion dollars in market capitalization has evaporated from the peak — one of the most dramatic valuation collapses in recent IPO history. At current levels, even investors who bought at the offering price are sitting on a significant loss.
Short sellers have been the primary beneficiaries of the downturn. Bearish bets against SpaceX now total roughly $26 billion, representing about 35% of the freely tradable float, according to one estimate, while another pegs the figure at 32%. Either way, it makes SpaceX the most heavily shorted name on Wall Street since its listing. Those betting against the stock have already booked an estimated $7.3 billion in paper profits since trading began, trailing only Tesla among this year’s most lucrative short targets.
The real catalyst for the recent weakness, however, is not the current price action but a date on the calendar: August 6. That is when lock-up agreements expire, potentially flooding the market with 911.5 million additional shares as early investors and insiders become free to sell. CNBC commentator Jim Cramer has pointed to this looming supply overhang as a key source of pressure, advising investors to avoid building large positions until the dual headwinds of earnings and the lock-up expiry have passed. Notably, Elon Musk’s own stake is exempt from the lock-up and remains restricted until June 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Adding to the anxiety, SpaceX will release its first-ever quarterly earnings report on August 4, just two days before the lock-up lifts. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $6.9 billion and a loss of about $0.28 per share. The Starlink business is seen as the financial backbone: it generated an estimated 61% of total revenue in 2025, with subscriber numbers reaching 10.3 million — a roughly 50% increase year-over-year.
The analyst community is deeply divided on where the stock goes from here. Price targets span an extraordinary range from $62 to $800. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains an overweight rating with a $300 target, arguing that the upcoming earnings could deliver a positive surprise driven by SpaceX’s AI-related ventures, including Grok, Cursor, and partnerships with Anthropic and Alphabet that could collectively generate up to $26 billion annually. If the stock falls below $100, Jonas suggests the market is completely ignoring these AI activities. At the opposite end, Morningstar has a sell recommendation and a fair value of just $63 — a fraction of the current valuation. Despite the wide divergence, the consensus average target sits well above $200, and ARK Invest has been buying the dip.
Operationally, SpaceX continues to fire on all cylinders. On July 24, the company completed its 13th test flight of the Starship system from Starbase in Texas, marking a significant milestone: for the first time, the upper stage deployed functional Starlink V3 satellites rather than dummies. Both the Super Heavy booster and the spacecraft stage executed controlled descents, with the Indian Ocean splashdown described by observers as the smoothest yet. The success should ease pressure on the Falcon 9 fleet as SpaceX accelerates its satellite launch cadence.
Regulatory tailwinds are also building. The Federal Aviation Administration this week proposed a rule that would allow exemptions from 13 federal laws — including the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Clean Air Act — to speed up commercial rocket launch approvals, which can currently take up to 36 months. SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025 and has ambitions to reach 10,000 launches per year within five years. The company was fined $150,000 in 2024 for Clean Water Act violations, and environmental groups including the Center for Biological Diversity have already vowed to challenge the FAA’s proposal in court, calling it an improper giveaway to the industry.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Meanwhile, NASA has thrown its weight behind SpaceX. Agency chief Jared Isaacman recently described the company as “essential” to the United States’ permanent presence on the moon, citing its unique heavy-lift and landing capabilities. SpaceX is also building orbital data centers, positioning itself as a space-based infrastructure provider for future computing demand. This dual role as both a transport and technology company continues to underpin a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion, despite the stock’s slide.
Technical indicators suggest the selling may be overdone. The relative strength index has dropped to 33.6, deep in oversold territory, while annualized volatility of 65.13% underscores how jittery trading has become. Whether bargain hunters step in or caution prevails ahead of August 6 will become clear in the coming sessions. For now, the lock-up expiry remains the single most important date on the calendar for SpaceX’s share price direction.
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