SpaceX Stock's Analyst Divide Widens to a $148 Gap as Lock-Up Waves and Starship's Next Flight Test Collide
Published on 08/22/2026 at 19:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gulf between Wall Street's most bullish and most bearish views on SpaceX has rarely been wider. Bernstein's Douglas Harned lifted his price target to $248 on Friday, while the DZ Bank initiated coverage the same day with a Sell rating and a $100 target — a $148 spread that captures just how unsettled the debate over the rocket giant's valuation has become.
The stock itself closed the week on a firmer note, adding 2.1 percent to finish at €117.20. That bounce, however, does little to mask the turbulence of recent sessions. Over the past seven trading days, the shares remain 3.1 percent in the red, even as the one-month picture shows a 16 percent gain. The equity now sits 5.4 percent below its 50-day moving average of €123.95 and roughly 40 percent off the 52-week high of €194.46 reached in mid-June, though it trades about 29 percent above the year's low from August.
A Rare Sell Call Meets a Bullish Counterweight
The DZ Bank's Markus Leistner opened coverage with a cautious stance, pointing to the roughly $800 billion in projected capital expenditures through 2030 tied to SpaceX's ambitions in artificial intelligence and space. His $100 price target stands in stark contrast to Harned's bullish outlook, which leans on the long-term promise of the Starship program and the potential for orbital data centers. Harned's revised target, up from $239, was echoed by William Blair, which reaffirmed its buy recommendation the same day, citing SpaceX's edge in reusable rocketry and a planned $16.8 billion chip-factory venture with Tesla.
The bearish camp has been building for weeks. On August 18, Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum reaffirmed his Sell rating with a $75 target, making the DZ Bank's call the second negative stance to emerge this month.
Lock-Up Calendar Keeps Supply Pressure Alive
The analyst disagreement is playing out against a steady drip of share supply. Thursday marked the release of roughly 319 million Class A shares from lock-up restrictions — about 7 percent of the early release pool — following an initial tranche of 911.5 million insider shares that became tradable in early August, adding an estimated $100 billion in market value to the float. Another similarly sized batch is scheduled to become tradable on September 9, with Elon Musk's personal holdings remaining locked until June 2027.
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That supply overhang helps explain the stock's recent softness, though the operational story tells a different tale. The company's second-quarter results, released in August, showed revenue climbing 92 percent year over year to $7.8 billion, comfortably ahead of the $6.81 billion analysts had penciled in. Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191 percent to $3.5 billion, even as the company posted a net loss of $541 million. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion directed at AI infrastructure.
Record Launch Cadence and a Growing Satellite Fleet
The operational momentum extends beyond the financials. Friday's Starlink-15-20 mission marked the 99th Falcon 9 launch of the year, and the Starlink fleet has added more than 2,000 new satellites in 2026, pushing the total in orbit past 11,000. Mid-August brought two launches within 38.5 minutes — a new cadence record. Musk has also confirmed that Starlink now serves over 13 million end customers and 22 million monthly mobile users.
The connectivity segment remains the growth engine, generating $4.3 billion in revenue with 1.7 million net new subscribers, while the AI business surged 247 percent to $2.6 billion. Management expects to exit the year at an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion.
Starship's Next Test Looms
The calendar now points to September 15, when the next Starship test flight is tentatively scheduled. That mission would mark the first time Starlink V3 satellites ride aboard the vehicle, and a booster catch attempt is possible. Musk has signaled that a successful catch is more likely in the coming months than in August, tempering expectations for an immediate milestone.
Institutional interest remains robust despite the valuation debate. Nvidia held roughly 122.76 million SpaceX shares worth about $21 billion as of June 30, while Alphabet reported 551.2 million shares valued at approximately $94.2 billion. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added more than 205,000 shares across several ETFs on Friday, spending around $27.4 million.
With annualized 30-day volatility at 91 percent, the technical picture offers little clarity — the relative strength index sits at 50.8, signaling no decisive direction. Between the September lock-up release, the Starship test window, and two analyst camps that see wildly different futures for the company, the only certainty is that the swings are far from over.
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