Standard Chartered Sticks to $4,650 Gold Call as Supply-Side Questions Mount
Published on 11/14/2026 at 10:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper is holding her ground. The bank's global head of commodities research reiterated an average price forecast of $4,650 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026, according to media reports on Wednesday, betting that investment flows and central bank demand will outweigh the drag from tighter US monetary policy.
Her demand-led view sits uneasily against the prospect of further US rate hikes. For investors, a durable recovery in the metal now hinges on whether buyers can absorb that headwind.
Two houses, two calls
Cooper expects hedging demand to return following the US midterm elections, a scenario that underpins her constructive stance provided investment flows genuinely come back. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven took a more guarded line. In a study dated 5 November, they cut their gold price targets, citing a more restrictive Federal Reserve course and an expected further rate increase in December. Where Cooper emphasizes demand, Goldman gives greater weight to the policy squeeze.
Official buyers and funds as ballast
Central bank purchases offer Cooper a supporting data point. The World Gold Council reported net purchases of 61 tonnes for September on 4 November — the highest monthly total of the year to that point. European gold funds have also lent support: European gold ETFs notched a fourth consecutive month of inflows in October, according to the WGC, with Germany among the markets posting positive demand.
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The rates backdrop remains awkward. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that further rate hikes look likely, Reuters reported. Tuesday's US consumer price data reinforced the tightening pressure, while producer prices reported a day later offered only limited relief to expectations. Rising oil prices added to inflation jitters — Reuters tied the move to fading hopes for a Middle East deal — and for zero-yield gold, the prospect of rates staying higher for longer only stiffens the headwind.
A parallel debate over where the metal comes from
Supply-side questions are crowding in alongside the rates argument. A SwissAid report covered by the Associated Press found that the United Arab Emirates remains a key destination for gold from conflict and sanctions-hit regions despite new trading rules. For 2024, the report cites 453 tonnes of gold from African producing countries reaching refineries in Dubai, with SwissAid concluding that trade links to conflict and sanctioned zones have persisted.
The human cost surfaced in Guinea, where authorities said at least ten people were killed in clashes at gold mining sites in the Siguiri region, AP reported, following a tougher state crackdown on unlicensed gold mining. Early in November, Guinea had already widened the deployment of security forces and controls.
Mine-level setbacks, record headline output
Individual operators are flagging their own difficulties. Integra Resources on Thursday cut its production guidance for the Florida Canyon mine to 59,000–62,000 ounces of gold for 2026 from 70,000–75,000 ounces, saying leach rates failed to keep pace with increased mining; extraction rates are to be reduced for the rest of the year. Asante Gold withdrew its production and AISC guidance for Bibiani yesterday, also citing operational problems, while Caledonia Mining said on Thursday that earlier issues at its Blanket mine had been resolved and output had normalized.
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The global picture cuts the other way. The World Gold Council reported on 3 November that mine production reached 1,071 tonnes in the third quarter — a record for any third quarter. Recycling moved in the opposite direction, falling 8% to 314 tonnes.
What to watch
Fresh clues on the rates path arrive with US retail sales on 17 November 2026 and the minutes of the Fed's October meeting on 18 November 2026, both of which could signal how the economy and the policy course are shaping up. The gap between the two forecasts will be settled by demand and monetary policy: Cooper's more optimistic scenario gains weight if investment inflows and central bank buying offset rate pressure, while further tightening signals would bolster Goldman's more cautious stance.
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