Telecom Italia's Rating Review Adds New Layer to Poste Takeover Calculus
Published on 08/08/2026 at 17:25 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The clock is ticking toward September 11, and Telecom Italia investors now have another variable to factor into their decision-making. Moody's placed the company's Ba1 long-term issuer rating on review for a possible upgrade over the weekend, citing the board's unanimous endorsement of the Poste Italiane takeover bid as the trigger for the reassessment.
The rating agency's move comes roughly three weeks after Telecom Italia's directors gave their blessing to the offer from the state-backed postal and logistics group, describing it as financially fair and strategically sound. Poste Italiane is offering €1.67 in cash plus 0.218 newly issued Poste shares for each Telecom Italia share, a package that values the company at approximately €13.0 billion. The acceptance window, approved by regulator Consob, remains open for the full 40 trading days, with the deadline now less than a month away.
For Moody's, the prospect of Telecom Italia falling under the wing of a financially stronger, state-connected parent represents a potential credit positive — hence the review with an upward bias. But the current Ba1 rating already reflects meaningful progress. The agency had lifted the company from Ba2 to Ba1 back in May, pointing to sustained deleveraging and an expected positive free cash flow trajectory for the 2026–2028 period. The balance sheet story improved dramatically after the 2024 sale of the NetCo fixed-line business to KKR, which trimmed net debt by roughly €15 billion. By the end of March, leverage had already fallen below twice EBITDA.
The operational picture lends further support to the improving credit narrative. Telecom Italia reported second-quarter results last week that landed squarely on analyst expectations, with EBITDA after leasing costs reaching €998 million against a consensus figure of €995 million. First-half group revenue rose 2 percent to €6.8 billion, or 3.3 percent when stripping out the mobile virtual network operator resale business. Adjusted EBITDA-AL climbed 1.2 percent to €1.8 billion, accelerating to 6.3 percent growth excluding MVNO effects.
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The company swung to a net profit of €88 million in the second quarter, though the secondary reporting of the results put the figure at €104 million — a discrepancy that appears to reflect different accounting treatments of certain items. Revenue for the quarter came in at €3.51 billion, up 4.3 percent year on year. Management reaffirmed its "Free to Run" industrial plan for 2026 and 2027 and guided toward a leverage ratio of 1.6 to 1.7 by year-end. Earnings per share estimates for 2026 were subsequently revised upward to €0.151 from €0.125, while the full-year revenue forecast held steady at €14.2 billion.
Beyond the tender offer and the quarterly numbers, several other corporate developments are simmering in the background. Telecom Italia completed the first tranche of its share buyback program on July 23, having repurchased 14 million shares — calculated on the basis of the 1-for-10 reverse split completed in June — for approximately €83.2 million. The company also bought back 298,000 shares on July 14. Separately, Davide Leone & Partners disclosed a roughly 3 percent stake in the ordinary share capital on July 13, resulting from the mandatory conversion of savings shares.
Legal matters around network infrastructure continue to percolate. On July 21, a Milan court rejected Telecom Italia's request for interim measures against KKR-controlled FiberCop concerning disclosure obligations on tariffs and access terms under the master service agreement. Three days earlier, the same court had dismissed an emergency petition from tower operator INWIT, upholding the legality of Telecom Italia's withdrawal from a service agreement. Both rulings went in the company's favor. In the background, the €700 million sale of the Sparkle submarine cable business to a consortium of the Italian economy ministry and Retelit — cleared by the EU Commission in April — carries an October 15 long-stop date.
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The share price has remained relatively subdued despite the flurry of news. The stock closed Friday at €7.59, down 0.17 percent on the day but up 3.29 percent over the week. On a monthly basis, however, the shares have shed 5.84 percent. The market capitalization stands at €16.27 billion.
The muted reaction to the Moody's announcement suggests investors are keeping their focus trained on the tender offer's outcome rather than on credit rating mechanics. A potential upgrade would likely be received as confirmation of the broader thesis rather than a catalyst in its own right. The real moment of truth arrives on September 11, when the acceptance figures will reveal just how many shareholders are willing to trade their Telecom Italia paper for a stake in Poste Italiane.
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