Thyssenkrupp: A Five Percent Wage Claim, a Hydrogen Tender Not Yet Awarded and a December Date With the Numbers
Published on 11/03/2026 at 15:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A 3.8% gain in Thyssenkrupp shares on Thursday had nothing to do with the day's biggest labour headline. IG Metall is demanding five percent more pay across the northwest German steel industry, a claim that covers workers at thyssenkrupp Steel — but the union's opening position is a demand, not an agreed increase, and it did not drive the stock. What matters for shareholders is whether the conglomerate can push its restructuring through while the cost side of steel stays uncertain.
Two separate storylines are running side by side. On one, the company has completed a concrete structural step. On the other, a richer wage settlement could raise the financial bar in the steel business. Neither can be read off the other.
The bar is economic delivery, not the pace of announcements
The real test is whether the overhaul can be executed on financially viable terms. At the Duisburg tkH?Steel project, the revised funding conditions have been finalised, according to media reports, and thyssenkrupp Steel is preparing a fresh tender for long-term hydrogen supply. Funding framework and procurement are therefore linked tasks — but they are not the same task.
That distinction carries weight. Finalised funding conditions do not equal signed supply contracts, and a tender in preparation says nothing about its eventual outcome. A re-rating would require organisational progress to turn into economically sound agreements. Speed alone is not the decisive variable; the financial effect is. While contract terms remain the subject of a future tender, a bullish case should not presume favourable procurement results — just as it would be premature to infer failure from the preparatory stage.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
One spinoff is done; the steel unit is only being readied
The positive case does not rest on announcements alone. On 28 October, Thyssenkrupp said it completed the spinoff of tk accelis with its stock market debut; the shares have traded on the Frankfurt stock exchange since then, and Thyssenkrupp retained 51 percent. That is tangible evidence that a structural project was executed — though it is not a full exit from the subsidiary.
The steel division sits at a different stage. Chief executive Miguel López told Reuters on 28 October that the unit is being prepared for the capital market as the next possible spin-off, after attempts to find partners came to nothing. The capital market, rather than a partner, could therefore open the path to independence. The wording matters: preparation is neither a resolved spin-off nor its completion, and strategic intent should not be equated with a finished result. The same applies at Duisburg, where the final amended funding notice permits a gradual and more flexible increase in the hydrogen share — headroom for the project, not a decision on who will own the steel business.
A lower target, a retained Buy
Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target to 17 euros from 18 on Thursday while keeping its "Buy" rating. A lower target alongside an unchanged positive recommendation is entirely coherent: a more cautious valuation wrapped around a constructive view. It also underscores that organisational milestones should not be mistaken for an improvement in earnings.
The bear case, then, is not necessarily a standstill. Several burdens could arrive at once — a higher wage settlement lifting costs while key hydrogen procurement decisions are still pending — and progress achieved on less favourable economics could be enough to disappoint. The completed spinoff does not remove that uncertainty; it proves a transaction was carried out, not what it did to the group's finances.
8 December is the next hard checkpoint
Thyssenkrupp has scheduled publication of its annual report for fiscal 2025/2026 for 8 December 2026, alongside its annual press conference and an analyst and investor conference. The announcement itself contains no business figures. It will, however, put the financial record next to the plans for the group's future structure — and it is the interplay of the two that investors will be judging.
If prepared measures become binding steps and extra costs stay manageable, the constructive reading can firm up. If contract terms come in worse or cost pressure builds, the optimistic interpretation weakens. Thursday's move does not pre-empt that verdict. The recovery would only rest on solid ground once further execution steps also convince on the economics.
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