Thyssenkrupp's Dual Engines Fire as Analysts Turn Bullish and Shares Close In on 52-Week Peak
Published on 08/24/2026 at 04:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The 6 percent jump in Thyssenkrupp's share price on Friday to €13.44 was the culmination of a week in which the Essen-based industrial group gave investors two distinct reasons to cheer. The stock's advance to the top of the MDAX leaderboard came on the back of an upgraded profit outlook from the steel-to-submarines conglomerate, followed by a wave of analyst re-ratings that underscored growing confidence in the company's transformation story.
The catalyst for the move arrived midweek with third-quarter results that showed the group's adjusted EBIT surging 62 percent to €591 million across the first nine months of the fiscal year. Management responded by lifting the floor of its full-year guidance, now targeting at least €600 million in adjusted EBIT rather than the €500 million previously flagged. The standout performer was Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, where adjusted earnings more than doubled from €177 million to €373 million, aided by a hiring freeze, a restructuring programme and efficiency gains across production and logistics. The workforce contracted by roughly 4,000 positions year-on-year to just under 90,000 employees as of the end of June.
The market's response was swift. Within 48 hours of the earnings release, three major banks had revised their positions. The DZ Bank upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" on Friday, lifting its price target from €11 to €16. Bank of America reaffirmed its buy recommendation a day earlier, raising its target from €19 to €22. Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi also moved, setting a €20 target while pointing to a Bloomberg report on planned Chinese stimulus measures in response to weak July economic data.
That China factor provided the additional spark for Friday's rally. European basic resources and steel stocks broadly benefited from expectations of stronger fiscal support from Beijing, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources index swinging into recovery mode.
A Diversified Story Takes Shape
While the steel division has historically been the swing factor for Thyssenkrupp's earnings, the maritime business is increasingly providing ballast. TKMS, the naval subsidiary, boasts an order backlog exceeding €25 billion, including €6.3 billion alone from frigate contracts. In the first nine months of the fiscal year, the division's revenue climbed 19 percent to €1.89 billion, with operating profit up 13 percent to €110 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
The defence arm's order book is being fuelled by Europe's rearmament push, placing Thyssenkrupp alongside Rheinmetall — whose own backlog has surpassed €100 billion — among the principal beneficiaries of rising military spending. A potential submarine deal with Greece, which the company says it is hopeful of securing, could swell the backlog further.
The strategic significance of TKMS's performance lies in what it represents for the group's overall risk profile. No longer is Thyssenkrupp solely dependent on the cyclical fortunes of its steel operations; the naval business now delivers dependable growth rates and stable margins, offering investors a more balanced earnings picture.
Approaching the Yearly High
Friday's advance brought the shares within 4.4 percent of the 52-week high of €14.05 reached on 17 August. The stock has gained 44 percent year-to-date and 47 percent over the past twelve months, with the latest leg of the rally representing a continuation of a longer recovery — the shares remain 89 percent above the 52-week low of €7.10 hit in late March.
The corporate restructuring agenda remains a persistent theme alongside the operational improvements. In early August, shareholders approved the spin-off of the materials trading division tk accelis at an extraordinary general meeting. Under the terms, shareholders will receive one share in the new company for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they hold, with the parent retaining a 51 percent stake for the time being. Registration in the commercial register is expected by the end of August, with the demerger taking legal effect at the end of October. An initial public offering of tk accelis is slated for the autumn, following TKMS's own listing in autumn 2025.
Operational headwinds persist, however. Low water levels on the Rhine have constrained raw material deliveries to the Duisburg steelworks, prompting the company to charter shallow-draft vessels as a workaround.
With a market capitalisation of roughly €7.88 billion, the shares still trade below the DZ Bank's fair value estimate of €16, suggesting the market has yet to fully price in the positive developments across the group's diversified business lines. The combination of a fortified order book at TKMS, a recovering steel division and the prospect of further analyst upgrades may provide the momentum needed to test that assessment in the coming weeks.
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