Thyssenkrupp's Steel Breakup Takes Shape as Analysts Push Price Target to €18
Published on 09/09/2026 at 14:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The conglomerate's restructuring ambitions are converging on a single date: September 28. That is when Thyssenkrupp will hold a dedicated capital markets day in London for its steel division — an event that could determine whether the struggling unit emerges as a standalone entity and whether the shares' recent momentum has further to run.
Analysts are already signalling confidence. A fresh price target of €18 has been slapped on the stock, a level that looks increasingly attainable given the recent run. The shares currently trade at €15.39, having gained 9.9 percent over the past seven trading sessions, even as they slipped 0.4 percent on the day. The equity now sits just shy of its 52-week high of €15.79, with the market capitalisation at €9.47 billion.
From Failed Talks to a Potential Spin-Off
The push toward separation follows the collapse in May of negotiations with Jindal Steel International over a stake in Steel Europe. Thyssenkrupp cited a shift in circumstances — namely, a more favourable regulatory environment for the European steel industry than originally anticipated — as the reason the talks fell apart. Management now appears to be weighing a full spin-off of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe instead.
The restructuring is taking place against a backdrop of genuine operational improvement. Over the first nine months of the fiscal year, revenue climbed 8 percent to €8.8 billion, while adjusted EBIT rose by €28 million to €183 million. The group reaffirmed its annual guidance, though it trimmed its revenue forecast. July also marked the completion of Thyssenkrupp's exit from the HKM joint venture, a move management has described as a historic milestone for the steel segment.
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The Human Cost of Restructuring
Yet the scale of the transformation is stark. Up to 11,000 of the 26,000 jobs at Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe could be cut, underscoring the depth of the overhaul required. German crude steel production fell 2 percent year-on-year in July to 2.7 million tonnes, although output from January through July still ran 7 percent ahead of the prior-year period.
The division is not merely shrinking, however. Thyssenkrupp is pushing ahead with a hydrogen-based direct reduction plant in Duisburg, capable of producing 2.5 million tonnes of directly reduced iron annually and cutting CO2 emissions by up to 3.5 million tonnes per year. Drees & Sommer has been brought in to oversee construction. The project carries a price tag that underscores the reliance on public support: the federal government and the state of North Rhine-Westphalia are chipping in €2 billion. A separate Carbon2Chem pilot facility in Duisburg, which would convert CO2 from smelter gases into synthetic aviation fuel via methanol, has also received an investment decision.
Portfolio Reshuffling Beyond Steel
The steel-focused capital markets day is not the only corporate action on the horizon. An extraordinary general meeting in early August approved the spin-off of materials distributor TK Accelis, with a flotation planned for later this year. That news helped lift the shares by 7.6 percent over the past week or so.
The stock reached a five-year high of €15.18 on Friday, buoyed by expectations that EU trade defence measures will deliver structural advantages to European steelmakers. The subsequent 1.8 percent daily pullback was widely read as routine profit-taking following the rally.
A Defining Moment for the Strategy
For investors, the September 28 event should provide answers to the questions that have hung over the stock for months. Will Steel Europe be listed separately, and on what terms? Can the conglomerate balance multibillion-euro investments in green technology against the cost pressures afflicting conventional steel production? And is the recent share-price strength built on a durable strategic foundation, or merely a reflection of a favourable industry cycle?
The elevated price target suggests at least part of the analyst community believes the strategy has legs — even if the operational realities of the steel business remain a sobering counterweight to the optimism.
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