Thyssenkrupp's Twin Catalysts: A €12 Billion Frigate Vote and Kone's Plan to Shed TK Elevator Assets
Published on 10/07/2026 at 08:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two unrelated developments are converging on Thyssenkrupp this week, each carrying significant weight for the Essen-based industrial group's investment case. In Berlin, the Bundestag is preparing to vote on a frigate order worth roughly €12 billion for the company's naval division, while in Helsinki, Finnish elevator maker Kone is reportedly planning to divest substantial parts of TK Elevator's European operations to clear antitrust hurdles ahead of its planned acquisition.
The parliamentary decision on the frigate program follows the premature termination of the previous F126 project. The first vessel is expected to be delivered by late 2029. The fallout from that cancellation has already turned contentious: Dutch shipbuilder Damen, through its attorney Peter Gauweiler, is demanding approximately €4.7 billion from the German government for services already agreed upon. Of that sum, about €1.95 billion would be passed on to Rheinmetall. Damen's legal team has also criticized the absence of a formal tender process for the reassignment to TKMS.
Kone's Divestment Plan and What It Means for Thyssenkrupp
Reuters reports that Kone intends to sell key portions of TK Elevator's European business to address competition concerns tied to the takeover. Thyssenkrupp retains an indirect stake of just over 16% in the elevator manufacturer — a holding widely viewed as a critical component of the conglomerate's valuation.
Steel Unit Holds the Line on Medium-Term Goals
Parallel to these portfolio developments, management continues to push the restructuring of its core industrial operations. At the steel division's Capital Market Day roughly a week ago, thyssenkrupp Steel reaffirmed its medium-term targets: an adjusted EBITDA of at least €1.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of no less than 11%. The unit also aims for positive free cash flow, with more than €800 million in earnings improvements expected to come from self-help measures. According to Reuters, the steel arm plans to at least triple its core profit through capacity and job reductions, alongside tougher trade barriers against low-cost Asian steel.
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A Mixed Earnings Picture Behind the Order Book
The frigate contract would substantially reinforce the group's order backlog in the defense sector. Even so, the broader fiscal year remains challenging. For 2025/26, the group projects a net loss in the range of €400 million to €700 million, with adjusted EBIT expected between €600 million and €900 million. Free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions is likely to come in negative at minus €600 million to minus €300 million. On top of that, unfunded pension obligations of €5.06 billion continue to weigh on the balance sheet.
Analysts Split on the Turnaround Story
Views on the transformation diverge across the analyst community. Deutsche Bank Research maintained its "Buy" rating on September 29 with a price target of €18. JPMorgan, by contrast, rates the stock neutral with a €15 target. Cole Hathorn of Jefferies pointed to customer destocking being largely complete and expects European steel prices to firm up through 2027.
Nucera Adds Tangible Building Blocks
Fresh momentum is also coming from elsewhere in the portfolio. Hydrogen subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Nucera signed a lease for a hall exceeding 7,500 square meters in Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal, where construction of its own assembly center for alkaline electrolysis cells is set to begin this winter, with operations slated to start in 2028. The investment ranges from €10 million to €14 million and is backed by roughly €3.7 million in Portuguese subsidies. Nucera also reported a new chlor-alkali order from China's Hongniu Lanzhou on September 29, valued in the low double-digit millions of euros.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Market Snapshot
Thyssenkrupp shares closed Tuesday's Xetra session at €13.80, up 48% year-to-date. The stock sits 13% below its 52-week high of €15.86. The company's market capitalization stands at €8.54 billion.
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