Thyssenkrupp's Twin Green Bets: A €3 Billion Steel Gamble and a New Fuel From Furnace Gas
Published on 08/20/2026 at 14:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The industrial conglomerate is betting big on two fronts in Duisburg — one that recycles its own carbon emissions into aviation fuel, and another that hinges on Brussels approving a financial lifeline for its flagship decarbonisation project.
Thyssenkrupp has given the green light to a pilot facility that will convert CO? captured from steel production into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), marking a decade of research under the Carbon2Chem banner. The final investment decision lands at a moment when the Essen-based group is simultaneously locked in late-stage negotiations with the German government and the European Commission over the subsidy framework for its €3 billion green steel plant in the same city.
The talks in Brussels have taken on added urgency because the Duisburg project's original blueprint — which tied two-thirds of its public financing to hydrogen deployment — no longer matches reality. With the hydrogen economy ramp-up stalling, the plant is expected to run on natural gas initially, and Thyssenkrupp is seeking to secure the promised subsidies despite this deviation from its green baseline. Reuters reports that the discussions centre on safeguarding those commitments under the revised circumstances.
A Profit Forecast That's Moving in the Right Direction
The strategic manoeuvring comes against a backdrop of improving operational performance. After delivering third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025/2026, Thyssenkrupp lifted the floor of its full-year guidance, now projecting adjusted EBIT of €600 million to €900 million, up from the previous range of €500 million to €900 million.
Quarterly revenue climbed 8 percent to €8.8 billion, with adjusted EBIT of €183 million and net income of €34 million — a return to profitability aided by a €407 million write-up tied to the completed sale of the HKM stake. The market took note: shares traded near their highest level since November 2018 on the day of the announcement, with Reuters attributing the move to the upgraded outlook and strength across steel, marine, and materials operations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
The momentum, however, took a breather on Wednesday, with the stock closing at €13.10, down 1.1 percent. The pullback does little to dent the longer-term picture: the shares remain up 47 percent over twelve months, have gained 8.3 percent in the past 30 days, and are up 41 percent year-to-date. They sit 6.8 percent below the 52-week high of €14.05 reached on August 17.
Diverging Fortunes Within the Portfolio
The group's constituent businesses tell a more nuanced story than the headline numbers suggest. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems has been a standout performer, posting a 19 percent revenue increase to €1.89 billion over nine months and sharply raising its own annual guidance. The submarine builder's strength has been a key pillar of the conglomerate's turnaround narrative.
The hydrogen subsidiary Thyssenkrupp nucera, by contrast, is pulling in the opposite direction. The electrolyser maker has trimmed its revenue outlook for the current fiscal year to €450-500 million and anticipates an EBIT loss of between €75 million and €105 million, weighed down by one-off costs related to the strategic decision on its SOEC technology. That caution stands in stark relief to the group's broader optimism.
What Investors Are Watching Next
For shareholders, the interplay between these threads is the crux. Stronger core earnings provide financial headroom that could strengthen Thyssenkrupp's hand in negotiations with Berlin and Brussels over the steel plant's funding structure. A breakdown in those talks would reopen questions about the investment case for the entire project — one of the largest industrial transformation efforts in Germany.
The near-term calendar offers another catalyst: Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe has scheduled a Capital Markets Day for late September, where management is expected to elaborate on the steel division's strategy, likely with an eye on the subsidy discussions. The Carbon2Chem pilot, meanwhile, signals that the group intends to keep its climate technology ambitions alive even as it navigates the financial strain of transformation.
Whether the revised subsidy framework for the green steel plant proves durable should become clearer in the coming weeks. For now, Thyssenkrupp presents investors with a portfolio of contradictions — a booming submarine business, a stuttering hydrogen arm, a steel division awaiting clarity, and a new bet on turning its own emissions into jet fuel.
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