Tungsten's Price Shockwave Meets a $300 Million Confidence Vote at Almonty
Published on 08/18/2026 at 18:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of the tungsten market look almost surreal. European benchmark prices for ammonium paratungstate averaged $3,075 per metric ton unit in the second quarter of 2026 — a more than sixfold jump from the $453 recorded just twelve months earlier. Behind that explosion sits a familiar culprit: the artificial intelligence boom, whose insatiable appetite for semiconductors has turned tungsten into one of the most tightly contested industrial metals on the planet.
Almonty Industries finds itself at the intersection of that supply squeeze and a wave of strategic repositioning. CEO Lewis Black flagged the disconnect in a mid-August statement: chip demand is outstripping the industry's ability to bring new mines online, and the metal that sits inside high-performance semiconductors and defense hardware is caught in the crossfire. China's recent export restrictions have only tightened the noose, sending Western technology and defense firms scrambling for supply chains that bypass Beijing entirely.
A Buyback Backed by Heavyweight Money
The company's response came on August 17, when the board authorized a buyback of up to 14.4 million common shares — roughly five percent of outstanding stock — with a $300 million budget spread over 36 months. The program kicks off August 24. Management's rationale is straightforward: the shares look undervalued at a moment when the Sangdong mine in South Korea is shifting into full operational mode.
The market liked what it saw, sending the stock up 6.3 percent on the announcement. That move wasn't happening in a vacuum. Recent 13F filings show 136 institutional investors added to their Almonty positions last quarter, with BlackRock alone picking up roughly 6 million shares worth around $100.6 million. Price T Rowe Associates invested approximately $94.7 million across nearly 5.7 million shares, while T. Rowe Price Investment Management separately deployed about $83.6 million for just over 5 million shares.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Not everyone is leaning in. Cooper Creek Partners Management exited its entire 4.78 million-share position, and Encompass Capital Advisors followed suit, selling off around 4.3 million shares. Goldman Sachs trimmed its stake by 80.2 percent. The split screen of accumulation and exit tells a story of divergent conviction — some institutions betting on the tungsten thesis, others taking profits or cutting losses.
A Balance Sheet Built for the Ramp-Up
The buyback arrives on the heels of a dramatic balance-sheet transformation. Almonty closed an oversubscribed convertible bond placement on June 9 — a $800 million raise carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031, with initial purchasers exercising their option for additional notes in full. The result: cash on hand of $1.2 billion as of June 30, up from $268.4 million at the end of December 2025.
That war chest supports more than just share repurchases. The company is mid-transition on the corporate front, moving its headquarters from Canada to the United States after shareholders approved the shift with 99.6 percent of votes cast. Almonty is simultaneously delisting from the Australian Securities Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange, betting its future on the US capital markets as it positions itself as a domestic supplier to American defense and technology industries.
Sangdong Enters the Spotlight
Operationally, the center of gravity is Sangdong. The mine transitioned from development to active processing in July 2026, with an ore reserve of roughly 139,700 tons. Management projects the operation will eventually supply about 20 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. A companion tungsten oxide facility in Yeongwol is slated to deliver 4,000 tons of high-purity tungsten oxide annually to Korea's semiconductor and battery sectors.
Shortly after processing began, Almonty expanded a long-term offtake agreement, which the company says secures better pricing and higher contract revenue at current market rates.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Analyst Divide
Wall Street's verdict is cautiously constructive but far from unanimous. Three analysts have published price targets over the past six months, with a median of $25. The most recent call is a "Buy" with a $33 target. TipRanks' AI analyst Spark, however, rates the stock neutral, citing persistent losses and ongoing cash burn despite improving revenue and debt metrics. Technical indicators remain weak, with the shares stuck in a downtrend and negative momentum.
The tension is clear: a company with a fortified balance sheet, a strategic mine coming online, and institutional heavyweights accumulating — yet still bleeding money and facing skepticism about the gap between narrative and execution. The buyback starts August 24, but Sangdong's contribution to the income statement remains largely a promise. Whether the combination of fund inflows and share repurchases closes the valuation gap Almonty itself has flagged will depend on the mine delivering what the tungsten market's price signals suggest it should.
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