Vonovia Draws Split Analyst Verdicts as Refinancing Costs and Berlin Politics Weigh on Disposals
Published on 11/06/2026 at 22:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs trimmed its price target on Vonovia from EUR 18.20 to EUR 17.70 on Thursday while keeping a "Neutral" rating, a day after Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its "Buy" call with a EUR 20 target. The two houses now sit on opposite sides of the valuation line, with Deutsche Bank's objective roughly EUR 2.30 above Goldman's revised mark. Analyst Jonathan Kownator adjusted his estimates to reflect the company's nine-month report; the lower target came without any change to his investment recommendation. Vonovia shares slipped 0.6% in today's session.
The nine-month figures published on Wednesday told a story of diverging currents. Adjusted EBITDA from rental operations climbed 3.5% to EUR 1,912.2 million, achieved despite a portfolio roughly 5,000 residential units smaller. Adjusted pre-tax earnings, by contrast, headed lower as higher financing costs ate into the result.
Vonovia itself points to costlier refinancing and a weaker transaction market as the drags on its guidance. Operating free cash flow fell 34.1% to EUR 932.5 million over the first nine months, while property disposals in the period totaled around EUR 900 million.
Reuters attributed Wednesday's share-price pressure to a combination of rising interest rates, the Berlin expropriation debate and a sluggish real-estate transactions market. Those same forces are complicating the group's debt-reduction plans and its pipeline of apartment sales, the news agency reported, with buyers holding back and stretching out deal timelines.
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Looking further out, the group expects organic rent growth of about 3.8% for 2026, down from roughly 4% previously guided, and operating free cash flow moderately below the prior year. For 2027, Vonovia projects adjusted EBITDA slightly above the 2026 level, with adjusted pre-tax earnings and adjusted shareholder results broadly flat year on year. Management flagged higher financing costs alongside lower expected contributions from recurring sales and project development as the headwinds for that year.
Beyond that horizon, organic rent growth for 2028 is now seen at around 4.5% rather than the roughly 5% previously assumed. Adjusted total EBITDA is expected at the lower end of the EUR 3.2 billion to EUR 3.5 billion range.
In a separate disclosure published today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a total position in Vonovia of 5.08%, up from 4.88% previously, with the threshold crossed on October 30. Share voting rights account for 0.95% of that total, while instruments make up 4.13% — meaning the bulk of the reported stake is held through derivatives rather than directly in stock.
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Vonovia has lined up its next round of investor engagements: a nine-month roadshow in Frankfurt on 09.11.2026 and in Paris on 10.11.2026, followed by the Kepler Pan-European Real Estate Conference in London on 12.11.2026.
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