VW's Preferred Shares Walk a Tightrope Between Cost-Cutting Targets and Global Product Offensive
Published on 08/12/2026 at 14:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between Volkswagen's operational hustle and its languishing share price has rarely been wider. While the automaker rolls out new models in China, launches service campaigns in South Korea and unveils camper van concepts in Düsseldorf, its preferred shares sit barely above the 52-week low, down roughly 29 percent since the start of the year.
At 74.18 euros, the stock trades just over seven percent above its yearly trough of 69.20 euros, hit in early July. The distance to the December peak of 109.10 euros is a painful 31 percent. A modest 30-day gain of nearly four percent offers little comfort, and the RSI reading of 45.7 points to neutral territory rather than an oversold bounce waiting to happen.
The Restructuring Gap: 50,000 Official, 100,000 Rumored
The central question for investors is whether management's publicly stated savings plan goes far enough. Under the "Group Target Picture 2030" program, Volkswagen aims to cut roughly 50,000 positions across Germany by the end of the decade. Of the 35,000 reductions targeted by 2030, more than 28,000 departures are already contractually agreed — a pace that has accelerated since September.
But a media report circulating since late June suggests CEO Oliver Blume may be contemplating something far more drastic: up to 100,000 job cuts worldwide out of a workforce of approximately 657,000. That would be double the officially announced figure. Volkswagen has neither confirmed nor denied the number. One insider says the central strategy document deliberately avoids a fixed target to preserve implementation flexibility, while the company points out that such decisions only materialize through proper governance channels. Reports of possible plant closures and a carve-out of the core brand likewise stem from internal papers, not board resolutions.
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The works council, for its part, says it has received no concrete figures on further job reductions — a sign that the standoff between management and labor representatives remains unresolved.
Tangible Progress, Measurable Headwinds
The company can point to real achievements. Factory costs at German sites fell more than 20 percent in 2025, and collective bargaining agreements plus headcount reductions have generated sustainable savings of around one billion euros. Management targets an operating margin of 4 to 5.5 percent for 2026, with automotive net cash flow of 3 to 6 billion euros. The longer-term ambition remains 8 to 10 percent by 2030.
The obstacles are equally concrete. The US tariff dispute is estimated to cost roughly 5 billion euros annually, hitting exports from Europe and production in Mexico. China, once VW's cash machine, shows clear delivery declines in the latest half-year figures. And the competitive pressure is intensifying closer to home: Chinese brands captured 3.8 percent of the German market in the first half of this year, up from 2.2 percent in the same period of 2024.
Political winds in Berlin are shifting too. Lawmakers from the SPD and CSU are pushing to recalibrate the electric vehicle purchase subsidy, arguing the current scheme also benefits luxury models. Four adjustment options are on the table, though one minister is blocking reform for now.
A Busy Quarter on the Showroom Floor
None of this has slowed the product pipeline. In South Korea, Volkswagen Group Korea kicked off its "EV Life Care" campaign on Wednesday for ID.4 and ID.5 owners, running through September 30. The program bundles "ID Perfect Care" and "ID Smart Care" service packages with up to 20 percent discounts on wear parts for five years, plus a warranty extension of two years or up to 150,000 kilometers. The ID.4, with a range of 424 kilometers, qualifies for a state subsidy of 4.32 million won; the ID.5, at 451 kilometers, receives 4.73 million won.
In China, Volkswagen and partner SAIC launched pre-sales on Tuesday for the ID. ERA 5S, the brand's first sedan equipped with the "Urban NOA" assistance system. The entry price: 17,100 dollars. It's a direct challenge to local EV makers who have been setting the pace in the world's largest car market.
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At the Caravan Salon in Düsseldorf, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles unveiled two world firsts: the ID. California Cruise study and an inflatable furniture concept called Stuff Bubble, whose kitchen module weighs under ten kilograms — a 60 percent weight saving over conventional solutions. The combustion-powered California Beach remains available, with the 150 PS TDI starting at 66,087 euros and the 204 PS TSI at 66,402 euros. The electrified eHybrid 4Motion variant, delivering 245 PS, costs 78,243 euros and offers an electric range of 89 kilometers.
What Comes Next
The share price sits nearly four percent below its 50-day moving average, underscoring how fragile the near-term trend remains. Two scenarios dominate the thinking of investors. If Volkswagen holds to its communicated 2026 cost targets and avoids an open confrontation with the works council, gradual stabilization between the 52-week low and the 50-day average looks plausible. If, however, communication shifts toward the rumored radical restructuring — plant closures, brand carve-outs, deeper job cuts — uncertainty will likely intensify before it resolves.
The negotiations with the works council will provide the next signal, along with the quarterly progress reports on cost reduction that management has promised. Those reports will reveal whether Volkswagen can actually deliver the margins it has pledged — or whether the market's skepticism is justified.
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