Xiaomi's August Earnings Test Arrives With Memory-Chip Headwinds and an EV Narrative Gaining Traction
Published on 08/04/2026 at 22:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The next fortnight will tell investors whether Xiaomi's two growth engines can run in tandem or whether one keeps stalling the other. When the Chinese tech group publishes its unaudited second-quarter figures on August 18, the market will be looking for proof that a record run in electric vehicle deliveries can offset a cost shock in the smartphone division that has already forced price hikes in China.
The stock, trading at €3.11, has clawed back more than 19 percent over the past 30 days from a June low of €2.34, yet remains down 28.13 percent for the year. That recovery now faces its stiffest test yet: a quarterly report that arrives just weeks after management raised its smartphone sales target from 90 million to 110 million units for the current fiscal year — a bold upward revision that leaves little room for disappointment.
The EV story gathers momentum
Xiaomi's automotive push has become the clearest source of optimism. July marked the fourth consecutive month in which monthly vehicle deliveries surpassed the 30,000-unit threshold. More tellingly, the YU7 SUV outsold the established SU7 sedan for the first time — evidence that the company is broadening its model lineup rather than simply shifting demand between vehicles.
The SkyNomad series, unveiled on July 30, represents the next chapter. The range-extender models N70 Max and N90 Max, built on the Kunlun architecture, are slated for September deliveries, with pre-orders already open. The flagship N90 Max boasts a range of up to 1,705 kilometers, positioning Xiaomi squarely against Li Auto in the family SUV segment. The company frames the strategy as an integrated ecosystem spanning people, cars, and homes — and if September deliveries ramp up strongly, the higher-margin vehicles could partially offset the smartphone margin squeeze.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
The memory-chip squeeze bites
That squeeze is real. Industry reports indicate DRAM and NAND memory chip prices have in some cases tripled, and Xiaomi responded on August 2 by raising prices on its Xiaomi 17 and Redmi series in China. The timing is awkward: the company had just raised its smartphone ambitions to 110 million units, betting on volume growth in the price-sensitive entry segment where higher prices could now dampen demand.
Analyst forecasts ahead of the earnings date pencil in quarterly revenue of 116.84 billion yuan and earnings per share of 0.225 yuan. These are projections, not certainties, but they set the bar. The key question is whether the margin-rich EV business and the upgraded smartphone guidance have already left visible marks on second-quarter profitability — or whether the raised targets remain aspirational.
Bulls point to buybacks and technical support
Optimists have plenty to work with. The four consecutive months of EV deliveries above 30,000 units suggest production stability rather than a one-off spike. Management has also put money where its mouth is: a mid-July buyback acquired roughly 3.9 million shares at an average price of HK$25.82 under the ongoing repurchase program — a signal of confidence in the company's valuation.
Technically, the stock has stabilized above its 50-day moving average of €2.91, confirming that level as support. The relative strength index sits at 52.7, leaving room for further upside without signaling overbought conditions. Strong pre-order numbers for the SkyNomad series could push the shares toward the 100-day average at €3.20.
Bears see volatility and institutional caution
The bear case rests on the combination of chip-cost pressure and uncertainty around the EV ramp-up. With an annualized volatility above 57 percent, this remains a stock prone to sharp swings in both directions. The 200-day moving average at €3.71 still sits roughly 16 percent above the current price — a genuine trend reversal has yet to materialize.
Institutional behavior adds another layer of caution. BlackRock trimmed its Xiaomi stake by 2.57 percent in late July, reducing its holding to 4.05 percent. Whether that reflects tactical profit-taking after the recent rally or a more cautious risk assessment is open to interpretation, but the timing — just before earnings season — invites scrutiny.
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Should chip costs remain elevated or the SkyNomad launch slip, a fall back below the €2.91 support level becomes plausible, with a retest of the €2.34 annual low not out of the question.
What to watch
Two data points will likely drive the share price in the coming weeks: the first official pre-order figures for the SkyNomad series and the monthly delivery data from the CPCA industry association. Both will indicate whether the EV push can generate the scale effects needed to offset chip-cost risks.
The August 18 report remains the fundamental test. If it confirms the raised smartphone guidance with corresponding margin development, the stock has arguments for extending its recent rally toward the 200-day average. If it misses the consensus estimates, the market may treat the freshly raised bar as an added risk — particularly with institutional investors having already trimmed positions. The report will settle whether the operational momentum across smartphones and EVs translates into hard financials, or whether July's guidance hike remains, for now, a promise.
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