Xiaomi's Autumn Crossroads: A September Launch Could Decide Whether the EV Story Survives
Published on 08/12/2026 at 16:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The smartphone division is quietly doing its job. Xiaomi's new Redmi K100 Pro series is rolling out, flagship pricing has moved up by 300 to 500 yuan, and the average selling price has climbed to 1,310 yuan. None of that is what's keeping investors on edge. The real question hanging over the stock is whether the company can nearly double its monthly electric vehicle deliveries in the second half of the year — and the answer arrives in September.
That's when the Sky Nomad, Xiaomi's new EREV SUV, hits the market. The model carries an outsized burden: more than 100,000 pre-orders are already on the books, and the company needs the vehicle to deliver a step-change in output. Xiaomi has committed to 550,000 EV deliveries for 2026, up from over 410,000 units in 2025. Through the first half of the year, it had managed roughly 34 percent of that target. July marked the fourth consecutive month above 30,000 deliveries — solid, but not nearly enough to hit the annual goal without a dramatic acceleration.
The math is unforgiving. At roughly 30,000 vehicles per month, Xiaomi needs to nearly double its run rate in the coming months to meet its own guidance. Whether the Sky Nomad can generate that kind of volume will determine whether the automotive growth narrative holds together. If sales underwhelm, investor skepticism about the EV division will only deepen.
A Stock That's Already Priced in the Doubt
The market has not been generous with Xiaomi this year. The shares are down 31.13 percent since January, sitting 54.43 percent below their 52-week high. The stock trades at 2.93 euros, barely above its 50-day moving average of 2.90 euros, and remains 18.63 percent under the 200-day average — a technical picture that suggests the medium-term downtrend is still intact. Annualized volatility of 59.77 percent underscores just how reactive the market has been to headlines around the company.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
The August 18 second-quarter earnings report will provide the next hard data point. The first quarter offered a cautionary template: revenue fell 10.9 percent to just under 99.142 billion yuan, while the EV and AI innovation segment posted an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan. The smartphone business, which still carries the bulk of group revenue, is wrestling with rising memory chip costs that squeeze margins at the point of sale. The central question for the earnings release is whether Xiaomi can offset those component costs through pricing power and scale — or whether the pressure will compound the losses already bleeding from the EV division.
The Bull Case: Cash, Buybacks, and a Track Record
Xiaomi is not approaching this from a position of weakness. Cash reserves exceed 220 billion yuan, and quarterly revenue recently reached 99.1 billion yuan. Research and development spending runs around 9 billion yuan per quarter — a substantial figure, but one the balance sheet absorbs without strain.
Management has also signaled its view on valuation through action. The share buyback program was expanded to a record 20 billion Hong Kong dollars in early summer, with fourteen consecutive tranches of repurchases executed between June 3 and July 15. That level of sustained buying suggests the board considers the stock undervalued.
There are also encouraging signals on the product side. The YU7 GT sports car set an SUV lap record of 7:22.755 minutes at the Nürburgring, reinforcing the brand's technical credibility. Media reports have floated the possibility of talks between Stellantis executives and Xiaomi regarding a stake in European marques such as Maserati — a partnership that would bolster Xiaomi's international automotive ambitions, though nothing has been confirmed.
The broader Chinese market provides tailwinds as well. New energy vehicle penetration hit a record 65.1 percent in July, and structural growth in the segment could benefit a newcomer with Xiaomi's brand recognition.
The Bear Case: A Price War With No Exit Ramp
The risks are equally concrete. Established players like BYD and Geely operate at massive scale with relentless production cadence, keeping competitive pressure on newcomers. If growth in pure battery-electric vehicles slows, Xiaomi could be forced to sacrifice margins in its automotive segment to defend market share — a scenario that would delay the path to EV profitability.
The smartphone side is not immune to pressure either. Component costs cannot be passed through indefinitely without risking market share in a fiercely competitive segment. If the second-quarter report shows both deteriorating phone margins and widening EV losses, the market would face two problem areas simultaneously — a combination that historically has been harder to digest than a single weak spot.
Xiaomi at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The 550,000-delivery target is an ambition, not a guarantee. Should Xiaomi officially trim that guidance, the stock would likely face renewed selling pressure. A break below the 50-day average could open the path toward the 52-week low of 2.34 euros.
September as the Deciding Moment
The near-term trajectory hinges on a single launch. If the Sky Nomad's September debut converts its pre-order backlog into sustained delivery volume, the EV story gains credibility and the stock has a foundation for a bottom. If the launch disappoints, the pressure on both the share price and the company's growth narrative will intensify.
The first official Sky Nomad sales figures will arrive in September, followed by the August 18 earnings report in the interim. Between them, investors will get a clearer picture of whether Xiaomi's two-front strategy — defending margins in phones while scaling EVs — can hold together. Until then, the stock remains a trade for those comfortable with volatility, with the buyback program and cash position offering some floor beneath the bearish narrative.
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