Xiaomi's Delivery Math: The 66,700-Vehicle Question Hanging Over a Stock Rebound
Published on 08/20/2026 at 07:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Investors who cheered Xiaomi's latest quarterly report may want to look past the headline numbers and focus on a far more demanding calculation. The company's electric vehicle division delivered 31,267 cars in July — a respectable figure on its own, but one that sits uncomfortably against the 550,000-unit target the company has set for 2026. To hit that goal, monthly deliveries would need to more than double to roughly 66,700 vehicles for the remainder of the year. That is not an incremental ramp; it is a near-total transformation of production and logistics capacity within a matter of months.
The market, for now, appears willing to give Xiaomi the benefit of the doubt. Shares jumped 8.1 percent on Tuesday following the earnings release and have held their ground since, leaving the stock up 6.2 percent on the week. Yet the delivery gap is a reminder that momentum in the stock price and momentum on the factory floor are two very different things.
A Milestone Worth Celebrating, But Not Projecting Forward
The SU7 sedan crossed 500,000 cumulative deliveries on Monday, roughly 28.5 months after its market debut — a notable achievement for a young automotive brand. Second-quarter deliveries alone reached 104,199 vehicles, and the segment encompassing EVs, AI and other new initiatives generated 24.9 billion yuan in revenue, an expanding slice of the company's 108.92 billion yuan total.
The operating loss in the automotive division narrowed to 2.6 billion yuan in the second quarter from 3.1 billion yuan in the first — genuine progress on the cost front. But loss reduction and delivery acceleration are separate challenges, and only one of them has shown visible movement lately. The 500,000-unit milestone is impressive as history; as a forward indicator, it says little about whether the second half of 2026 can deliver the ramp the company's own targets demand.
Smartphones Are Carrying the Quarter — For Now
The real driver behind the post-earnings rally was not the car business but the smartphone division. Average selling prices climbed 26 percent year over year to $188 per device in the second quarter, pushing segment revenue to $6.25 billion against analyst expectations of $6.09 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
Xiaomi followed up in early August with price increases of up to 13 percent on several models in the Xiaomi 17 series and the Redmi Turbo 5, citing higher costs for memory components driven by surging demand from AI server builders. The explanation is plausible, but it cuts both ways: a meaningful portion of the ASP improvement reflects cost pass-through rather than brand strength. Whether customers will absorb those increases without defecting to competitors remains the open question in the smartphone segment.
The user base, at least, suggests resilience. Xiaomi counted 770 million monthly active users globally in June, up 4.8 percent year over year, with 198 million of those in mainland China. That ecosystem reach is arguably the strongest structural asset in the entire earnings report.
The Cost Squeeze Beneath the Surface
The component price pressure that justified those smartphone price hikes has also been eating into profitability. Adjusted net income fell 42.6 percent in the second quarter, while revenue declined 6.1 percent — figures that underscore how much of the recent rally is built on forward expectations rather than current earnings power.
The hope among bulls is that memory prices will ease in the second half of the year, relieving margin pressure and giving the EV business room to scale. That scenario is plausible, but neither Xiaomi nor the analysts covering it can predict the trajectory of component costs with any certainty.
A Stock Caught Between Two Speeds
The analyst community reflects the tension. Bernstein SocGen reaffirmed a "Buy" rating earlier this month with a price target of HK$38.00, while JPMorgan holds at "Neutral" with a target of HK$31.00. The spread captures the dilemma neatly: a high-margin smartphone operation firing on all cylinders sits alongside an auto business whose loss reduction is real but whose growth ambitions look increasingly stretched.
Meanwhile, the software side of the story continues to develop. Xiaomi announced HyperOS 4 last Friday, with the beta now rolling out to select devices; no global release date has been confirmed. It adds a fresh narrative thread for bulls focused on ecosystem diversification beyond hardware.
The stock trades at €3.01, above its 50-day moving average of €2.89 but well below the 200-day average of €3.61. At 54 percent off the 52-week high of €6.54 reached last September, and with annualized volatility running at 61 percent, this remains a share for investors with steady nerves. Those who believe the smartphone story will find support in the numbers. Those betting on the car as a second growth engine would do well to watch the monthly delivery figures closely — the arithmetic from 31,267 to 66,700 vehicles per month will not resolve itself.
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