Xiaomi's Recovery Faces a Two-Front Test: Pricier Snapdragon Chips and an SUV Sales Hurdle
Published on 07/31/2026 at 05:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock has clawed back a chunk of its losses over the past month, but Thursday's session served as a reminder that Xiaomi's path back to investor favor is anything but smooth. Shares slipped 4.48 percent to EUR 3.41 in European trading, a pullback that came despite the company unveiling its new SkyNomad SUV lineup — a disconnect that neatly captures the tension between Xiaomi's product ambitions and the market's lingering doubts about its execution.
A 30-day run of nearly 38 percent has certainly changed the mood. Yet the bigger picture remains sobering: the stock is still down roughly 21 percent year-to-date and sits almost 48 percent below its 52-week high. The 200-day moving average, a key gauge of medium-term momentum, remains nearly 9 percent overhead. In other words, this is a recovery from a deep hole, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
Short sellers helped fuel the bounce
Part of the recent surge owes a debt to positioning rather than fundamentals. Short interest in Hong Kong-listed technology hardware names has climbed notably, with Xiaomi among the stocks seeing the sharpest rise in bearish bets. When positive headlines force those short sellers to cover, the resulting squeeze can amplify an upward move — but it is a technical tailwind, not a substitute for earnings power.
The fundamental picture is decidedly mixed. Xiaomi has lifted its smartphone shipment target from roughly 90 million to 110 million units, with growth expected to come primarily from the entry-level segment. That is a bold call in a market that remains under pressure. But the timing of that ambition is about to collide with a cost shock: Qualcomm has informed customers of a double-digit percentage price increase on all products shipped from September 1, 2026. Snapdragon processors are the backbone of premium handsets from Xiaomi, Samsung, OnePlus, Oppo, Asus and Motorola alike, and while passing those costs to consumers will take months, the margin math for Xiaomi's core business just got harder.
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The EV bet hinges on the second half
On the automotive side, the company is aiming to deliver 550,000 vehicles this year — a target that requires a significant acceleration in the second half. The newly unveiled SkyNomad N90 and N70 Max models, built on the Kunlun architecture, represent Xiaomi's attempt to move beyond the conventional family car into something closer to a rolling living room. The extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) boast a combined range of up to 1,705 kilometers, with the N70 Max offering a pure-electric range of up to 505 kilometers — a standout figure in the EREV segment.
The pricing is aggressive too. The N90 Max starts at 299,900 yuan, roughly EUR 38,700, undercutting rivals like Nio and Li Auto. Pre-orders opened Thursday in China, with deliveries slated to begin in September 2026. The stakes are high: the Chinese auto market shrank 20 percent in the first half of 2026, and Xiaomi sold around 185,000 vehicles in that period — only about a third of its annual goal.
A successful September launch could close that gap. A stumble — whether due to supply chain issues or cautious premium-segment buyers — would likely leave the stock range-bound, with the 100-day average near EUR 3.22 as the next support level to watch. The company has already delivered over 700,000 vehicles in its automotive business, evidence that it can scale. And a planned export push into Germany, slated for 2027, would reduce dependence on a saturated home market.
Chip IPO windfall adds a peripheral boost
One bright spot has come from an unexpected corner. Xiaomi, as a strategic investor in Chinese memory chip maker CXMT, booked paper gains of over 700 million yuan following the company's recent IPO. That is a welcome tailwind, but it remains peripheral to the core smartphone and EV businesses.
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The technical picture offers some comfort: the relative strength index sits at 65.3, suggesting the stock is not overbought despite Thursday's decline. The stock has also gained 45.45 percent from its 52-week low, though it remains 47.69 percent below its high of EUR 6.51.
Two dates will shape the next leg
With the stock still trading below its 200-day average of EUR 3.74, the chart remains damaged. The next catalysts are concrete and near-term: August's official sales data, which will offer the first hard read on SkyNomad pre-orders, and the September 2026 start of deliveries. Until then, Xiaomi remains a stock caught between a genuine product push and unresolved questions about margins, costs and whether the EV division can deliver on its own aggressive targets. The rally has been real — but so are the headwinds gathering behind it.
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