Xiaomi's SkyNomad Backlog Can't Mask the Math That's Haunting Investors
Published on 08/12/2026 at 03:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic is unforgiving. A stock that sat at €6.54 in late September now changes hands around €2.96 — a 54.74 percent round-trip that has erased more than half the company's market value in under a year. Xiaomi's 12-month decline stands at 48.41 percent, with the 2026 calendar year alone accounting for a 31.61 percent slide. Tuesday's session added another 4.95 percent to the damage.
The trigger for the latest leg down isn't a product failure. It's the opposite: the SkyNomad, a large SUV priced between $38,000 and $44,000, has pulled in more than 100,000 reservations since launch. July deliveries topped 30,000 vehicles for the fourth consecutive month. The EV business is, by any operational measure, firing on all cylinders.
That's precisely what makes the sell-off so telling. Investors aren't questioning whether Xiaomi can build compelling cars — the SU7 Ultra's Nürburgring lap record, which beat the Porsche Taycan Turbo GT, settled that debate a year ago. The question is whether the company can build them at a margin that justifies the capital being poured in.
The Cost Side of the Ledger
The smartphone division, still the company's core, is where the pain shows up first. First-quarter 2026 results, reported in late May, painted a stark picture: revenue fell 10.9 percent year over year to 99.142 billion yuan, with handset sales dropping from 50.612 billion to 44.273 billion yuan. Net income collapsed from 10,924.32 million to 4,723.12 million yuan, and diluted earnings per share halved from 0.44 to 0.18 yuan.
Rising memory and chip costs have been squeezing margins all year, and those pressures are expected to feature prominently in the second-quarter report due August 18. Between July 31 and August 11, the stock shed roughly 7 percent as the SkyNomad launch — despite its technical innovations — reignited concerns about how much each new model line costs to bring to market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
Xiaomi isn't slowing down. The company continues to push software updates like the OTA 1.17 package for the SU7 Ultra, which adds an AI-powered parking assistant and a larger language model. Reports suggest a new division for alternative powertrains and larger vehicle bodies is in the works, extending beyond the SU7 and YU7 lineups. Each of these initiatives reads as growth on a press release and as capital commitment on a balance sheet.
Buybacks and Bullish Calls
Management has tried to signal confidence. On July 31, Xiaomi repurchased 1.7408 million shares at prices between HK$28.64 and HK$28.88, spending just under HK$50 million. The buyback is a gesture of faith in the company's own trajectory, though it does nothing to resolve the fundamental margin question.
Sell-side optimism exists but comes with caveats. Futu Securities projects second-quarter revenue of roughly 100 billion yuan and adjusted net income of 6.1 billion yuan, with a price target of HK$37.30. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "Buy" rating in early August, citing expected EV profitability improvements in the second half — though that call predates the SkyNomad margin debate and should be read accordingly.
UBS, publishing on August 6, floated the possibility of a positive earnings surprise. The logic: if the cost pressures that hammered the first quarter ease in the second, the results could beat expectations. The market's response to that report has been muted at best — the stock continues to hover barely 26 percent above its 52-week low of €2.34 and sits near its 50-day moving average of €2.90.
What August 18 Decides
The second-quarter report and subsequent investor call will settle the argument that's been running for weeks. If the EV division's momentum can offset the electronics cost burden, the current valuation may look overly punitive. If the first-quarter trend repeats, the pressure has further to run.
Beyond the earnings, September is expected to bring the Xiaomi 18 flagship launch in China, and HyperOS 4 could debut as soon as August. Product news, however, has rarely moved this stock lately. The market is waiting for numbers, not announcements.
The Nürburgring record proved Xiaomi can build a car that outpaces Porsche. The August 18 report will show whether it can build one that outpaces its own cost structure.
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