XPeng's G9L Gamble: Can a New SUV Break the Summer Slump Before Tuesday's Numbers?
Published on 08/20/2026 at 15:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The countdown to XPeng's second-quarter earnings report has taken on an unexpected subplot. Just days before the Chinese electric-vehicle maker opens its books on August 24, the company quietly launched pre-sales for its new G9L SUV at a starting price of 259,800 yuan. The timing is no accident — it's a deliberate attempt to shift the narrative before investors get a hard look at the financials.
The stakes are considerable. XPeng has already disclosed deliveries of 103,295 vehicles for the second quarter, a figure that landed within its own guidance of 100,000 to 106,000 units. That represents a substantial 64.8 percent jump from the 62,682 vehicles delivered in the first quarter. Yet the headline number masks a more uncomfortable reality: media reports indicate that deliveries over the first seven months of the year have fallen nearly 13 percent year over year. The summer months, it seems, have been less kind.
A Supplier's Quiet Vote of Confidence
One of the more telling signals has come from an unexpected corner of the supply chain. CALB, the battery manufacturer, recently issued a positive profit warning and, in doing so, revealed the depth of its relationship with XPeng. CALB is the exclusive cell supplier for the GX series, provides LFP batteries for the MONA L03, and serves as the sole cell provider for the new G9L. When a key supplier expresses optimism about its own near-term outlook, it hints that production planning at XPeng hasn't collapsed — though it hardly guarantees the company's own results will impress.
The GX, in particular, has been a bright spot. The premium SUV accounted for 6,739 deliveries in June alone, and management has guided second-quarter revenue to a range of 19.60 billion to 20.80 billion yuan. Hitting the top end of that range would translate to roughly 13.8 percent year-over-year growth.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
The Profitability Question Lingers
The real test, however, remains margins. In the first quarter, XPeng held a gross margin of 20.6 percent, supported by its "Physical AI" strategy and technology licensing revenue. Whether the second-quarter volume surge — driven by higher-priced models like the GX — has improved on that figure is the question investors will be asking when the unaudited results land before the US market opens on Monday.
Institutional investors, meanwhile, appear to be rotating rather than fleeing. Data from August 18 shows BlackRock has trimmed its position, and among institutional filers, 168 sellers currently stand against 127 buyers. Yet the total number of American Depositary Shares held by institutions has actually risen to roughly 128.2 million, up 2.1 percent from the end of March. That pattern suggests capital reshuffling among large holders rather than a coordinated exit ahead of the earnings report.
A Stock Trading Near Its Floor
The market's mood is perhaps best captured by the share price itself. The stock has lost 42 percent since the start of the year and sits 57 percent below its 52-week high of 24.40 euros, set in November 2025. At its most recent close of 10.54 euros, the shares are just over 5.5 percent above the 52-week low of 9.99 euros marked only days ago, on August 13.
The technical picture offers little clarity. The stock trades 6.7 percent below its 50-day moving average of 11.19 euros, while the relative strength index of 44.2 points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions. With 30-day annualized volatility at 39 percent, the market is clearly bracing for meaningful movement once the numbers are out.
The recent trading sessions have shown some tentative buying interest — the stock gained 3.1 percent on the day of the G9L announcement, following a 2.1 percent advance on Thursday to 10.44 euros. But a single day's move hardly constitutes a trend reversal.
XPeng at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Analyst Void
Notably absent from the current picture is fresh analyst guidance. Morgan Stanley's last known stance, a price target of 96 Hong Kong dollars, dates back to August 11 — too stale to be treated as a current assessment. With no recent revisions to anchor expectations, investors are left to interpret the earnings release on its own merits.
That leaves XPeng in a peculiar position ahead of Tuesday's report. The G9L pre-sale and the supplier signals suggest the company is not in operational free fall. But the declining delivery trend and the massive share-price erosion tell a different story — one of a market that remains deeply skeptical. The stock, hovering near its yearly low, has limited room for further disappointment. Conversely, it also offers upside potential if the balance sheet or the G9L outlook delivers a positive surprise.
For now, XPeng remains what it has been for months: a bet on a story rather than on the numbers. Tuesday will determine whether that story finally starts to add up.
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