XPeng's Q3 Guidance Is the Only Number That Matters Now
Published on 09/11/2026 at 14:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
XPeng finds itself in the peculiar position of a company whose operational scorecard keeps improving while its stock chart keeps deteriorating. The Chinese electric-vehicle maker delivered 103,295 vehicles in the second quarter of 2026 — a 65% jump from the prior quarter — and booked revenue of 19.74 billion yuan at a gross margin of 20.7%. Its robotics unit, meanwhile, pulled in roughly $900 million at a valuation north of $6.3 billion, the largest single funding round ever for a Chinese embodied-AI company.
The market has responded by sending the shares to 8.94 euros, just 0.6% above their 52-week low. Since January the stock has shed half its value, and over twelve months it is down 49%. Measured against the November peak of 24.40 euros, the decline reaches 63%. The 14-day RSI of 31 flags an oversold condition, though that alone has yet to produce a reversal.
That gap between the operating story and the trading reality is the crux of the debate. XPeng has been generating headlines at an impressive clip — a robotaxi license in Guangzhou for its second-generation VLA platform allowing driverless testing on designated roads, a Philippine pre-sale launch for the seven-seat X9 flagship van ahead of its local debut later in September, and the start of pre-orders for the G9L in mainland China on August 11. The company also calculated that EVs delivered between January and August will save more than 3.72 million tonnes of greenhouse gases over their lifecycle versus combustion vehicles, a figure aimed squarely at institutional investors.
The Quarter That Will Settle the Argument
None of that changes the central tension: unit growth is colliding with a capital market that increasingly demands profitability. XPeng's guidance for the third quarter of 2026 — deliveries of 115,000 to 121,000 units and revenue of 21.7 billion to 23.4 billion yuan — now serves as the single most important data point on the horizon.
Barclays is unconvinced. The bank cut its price target in August to $14 while keeping an Underweight rating, citing doubts about the delivery forecasts. Bernstein SocGen Group took a different route to a similar conclusion, pointing to still-widening losses and maintaining an $18 target with a Market-Perform rating.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
The August delivery figure offers ammunition to both camps. XPeng shipped 39,107 vehicles, up 4% year-on-year, but well below the pace set in the second quarter — a signal that the spring surge may have borrowed demand from later months. CEO He Xiaopeng has nonetheless floated monthly sales above 60,000 units for the fourth quarter, a target that would rest on the new G9L, Mona L03 and Mona L05 models.
What the Bull Case Rests On
If the product offensive lands as planned, the picture brightens considerably. The G9L is scheduled to begin deliveries in China in September. The Mona L03 is set for international delivery in the fourth quarter and, according to company statements, should lift quarterly overseas sales above 40,000 units. The Mona L05, an SUV variant, is also due to launch in China before year-end.
A successful mix of those three would pair volume growth with the already-elevated 20.7% gross margin, potentially defusing the profitability question. The robotics arm adds a second lever: the $900 million Series A, led by IDG Capital with participation from Gaorong Ventures as well as Tencent Holdings and Alibaba Group Holding, shows that institutional money sees real potential in the physical-AI strategy built around the IRON humanoid. That segment won't generate revenue near-term — commercial market entry isn't expected until 2027 — but it could become a valuation catalyst if serial production starts as planned around the end of the year.
Where the Bear Case Digs In
The counterargument is that the 60,000 monthly sales target for the fourth quarter remains a corporate assertion rather than a confirmed result. Technical conditions reinforce the caution: an RSI of 34.3 and annualized volatility of 41% leave the stock in a fragile setup where even modest disappointments can trigger outsized moves. The share price sits 14% below its 50-day moving average and 35% below its 200-day line.
The pattern on display is not unique to XPeng. Investors across Chinese EV names have stopped rewarding technological milestones — robotaxi permits, robot factories, overseas pre-sales — with automatic share-price gains as long as the core question of sustainable profitability goes unanswered.
That leaves a fairly narrow path. So long as XPeng meets its third-quarter delivery guidance and keeps gross margin above the 20% threshold, the growth narrative holds and the IRON robotics story can feed back into the valuation. Miss the delivery targets or see margin pressure build, and the skepticism voiced by Barclays and Bernstein SocGen Group will find a wider audience — with a retest of the lows as the likely consequence. The G9L's China launch in September and the third-quarter earnings report are the next concrete tests of whether the 115,000-to-121,000 unit guidance is more than a promise.
Ad
XPeng Stock: New Analysis - 11 September
Fresh XPeng information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
