XRP's Supply Glut Meets a Credit Market That Hasn't Switched On Yet

Two forces are pulling at XRP from opposite directions, and neither one is delivering the demand story token holders might hope for. On one side, the coin's circulating base has swollen dramatically since 2017, diluting the value of each unit. On the other, a pair of proposed lending features on the XRP Ledger is being tested — but remains far from activation. Between them sits a trading market that has cooled sharply.

More tokens, same network, thinner price

Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard puts the supply expansion in concrete terms: circulating XRP has climbed from 38.7 billion in 2017 to 63.1 billion today. The network's valuation is now spread across far more tokens than it was seven years ago.

That math matters for how investors read the price chart. A lower per-token price against a larger float does not translate into an equally steep drop in overall value. According to the CoinDesk analysis, market capitalization slipped only about 3% across the comparison period — the bigger supply, not a collapse in the network's worth, is what weighed on the individual token price. Judging XRP solely by its unit price therefore paints a misleading picture when stacked against earlier market cycles.

Supply alone doesn't tell the whole story, though. The analysis flags the demand side as the open question: if the token's float grows more slowly going forward and XRP still trails Bitcoin, that would point to insufficient buying interest. That is a conditional scenario, not a settled finding.

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Trading activity has gone quiet on both fronts

The cooling is visible in the numbers. Nansen reports a 53.5% drop in XRP spot trading volume, with open interest in perpetual futures falling 44%. The pullback spans both direct token trading and the derivatives market.

Those figures sharpen the supply picture: a durable recovery needs more than new investment products — it needs actual buying. Institutional access routes and exercised purchase interest are not the same thing. US spot ETFs on XRP have drawn in capital, but the CoinDesk analysis characterizes institutional demand as weaker than what Bitcoin and Ether have attracted. That undercuts the assumption that broader access to the token automatically triggers a strong price catch-up.

Ripple's business grows, but not always in XRP

Wincent points to Ripple's focus on payment infrastructure and stablecoins, noting the company has steered away from the decentralized finance themes that dominate crypto hype cycles. For XRP holders, the operative question becomes which offerings actually require the token.

Ripple Prime, launched yesterday, offers a case in point: institutional clients gain access to perpetual swaps across more than 100 traditional markets, with RLUSD — not XRP — serving as collateral. Such products expand Ripple's business without generating direct XRP demand on their own. RLUSD and XRP are separate assets, and that distinction matters when weighing partnerships and new trading venues that strengthen infrastructure without proportionally driving token purchases.

The analysis sets a different bar than counting new collaborations. What counts for a credible re-rating is demand for XRP itself and its capacity to absorb the expanded supply. Corporate growth and token returns are not equivalent measures.

A credit market still waiting for validator sign-off

Parallel to all this, XRPL Commons has disclosed that proposed lending functions are being trialed on the XRP Ledger — a possible use case that goes beyond simply holding the token. But a live credit market is not part of the package yet: validator approval is still outstanding.

The proposals in question are XLS-65 and XLS-66, which envision single-asset liquidity pools and term loans on the ledger. As of yesterday, validator support stood at 60% and 54% respectively — both short of the supermajority needed to activate. For investors, that gap is the crux: technical testing, validator consent, and a reliably operating lending market are three distinct stages. The trials justify neither expectations of an imminent launch nor assumptions of existing extra XRP demand.

The lending plans include external borrower checks and optional first-loss reserves designed to absorb initial losses. Their intended use is not a guarantee of risk-free yields.

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Evernorth lines up 473 million tokens

One potential institutional application comes from Evernorth, which announced partnerships Wednesday with Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase and BitGo to support institutional investment strategies using its XRP holdings. The planned deployment covers roughly 473 million XRP and is slated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Any later use of the ledger's credit functions depends explicitly on validator approval and dependable operation.

So two tracks are running side by side: Evernorth is preparing strategies for its stash while the native credit features are still in testing. A planned strategy launch should not be conflated with a confirmed switch-on of the lending protocol.

At Evernorth's exchange debut on Wednesday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse cited possible yield strategies both on and off the blockchain, along with institutional investment products — development possibilities, not offerings already in place. Ripple justified its XRP contribution to Evernorth as an investment in blockchain ecosystems, an approach aimed at putting holdings to more active use rather than mere custody.

For XRP investors, the significance of the tests lies in that potential broadening of utility. What determines whether it happens is activation of the proposals and the reliable operation that must follow. The announced treasury strategies supply a concrete application context; they do not prove a native XRP credit market is already running.

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