XRP's Warning Lights Are Flashing — But Nobody Has Proven a Sell-Off Yet
Published on 10/25/2026 at 14:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
XRP holders scanning the tape this week face a puzzle with no clean answer. Exchange balances are creeping higher, large-transfer activity has cooled sharply, and the token is nursing a double-digit monthly loss. Yet none of those signals, on their own, confirms that major holders have actually dumped their coins.
The token changed hands near $1.29 on Wednesday, still above the $1.26 floor of a price channel that has framed trading since August. Analyst Ali has flagged that level as the line in the sand. A decisive break below it, he argues, would open the door first to $1.11 and then to $0.98. His caution rests on two converging data points: the number of large XRP wallets he tracks fell from 351 to 339 in recent weeks, while balances sitting on trading platforms climbed from 11.003 billion to roughly 11.05 billion tokens.
That divergence — fewer big holders, more coins parked on exchanges — is what underpins his risk scenario. It is not, however, proof of executed selling. Whether the available supply actually converts into fresh selling pressure is the question that matters, and it remains unanswered.
Binance Flows Tell a More Complicated Story
Fresh data on exchange activity muddies the bearish read further. Binance recorded average daily net inflows of 9.3 million XRP over the week under review, yet the volume of large transfers dropped 44% week-on-week, with the token quantity moved down 37%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Those figures measure different things. Positive net inflows reflect an excess of deposits over withdrawals. Shrinking whale transfers point to less activity in that segment of the market. Neither tells you the incoming coins were sold. A report published Thursday made the same point: deposits to an exchange can signal pending sales, but they can equally reflect rebalancing or custody moves. The gap between sending tokens to a platform and executing a trade is where most misreadings happen.
What actually drove the latest price pressure was not XRP-specific news at all. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies slid yesterday in a broad retreat from risk assets. That market-wide pullback — not a new regulatory ruling on XRP — was the most immediate drag on the token.
Funds Offer No Clear Counterweight
The ETF picture is equally ambiguous. Across five tracked US spot XRP ETFs, Friday brought zero net flows. That followed the week of October 12–16, when a run of positive weekly inflows ended with outflows of about $1.84 million. Since launching in November 2025, these funds have pulled in roughly $1.81 billion cumulatively and hold $1.48 billion in assets.
A single flat day hardly amounts to institutional investors heading for the exits. By the same token, it offers no evidence that the funds would step in to absorb any selling by large holders. For near-term direction, the current trajectory of money flows matters more than the sum of past inflows.
XRP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Ledger Housekeeping Adds a Separate Headache
Away from price action, the XRP Ledger has its own to-do list. Temporarily delayed ledger closes returned to normal on Thursday after a recommended configuration change, with developers still preparing a software fix and the root cause unconfirmed. Separately, activation of the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment slipped to November 4 after validator support briefly fell below the required threshold. The change bundles fixes to token permissions and to calculations for vault and lending functions.
For now, market headwinds and technical chores sit side by side. XRP's 30-day performance of -17% underscores the recent softness, and the $1.26 channel floor remains the pivot on which Ali's warning turns. Hold above it despite the heavier exchange balances, and his downside scenario stays unconfirmed. Break it, and the caution looks prescient. The transfer data adds a useful observation point — but it is the limits of what that data can prove that investors should keep front of mind.
Ad
XRP Stock: New Analysis - 25 October
Fresh XRP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
