DroneShield Shares Surge on Strong Order Momentum

Shares of DroneShield opened the 2026 trading year with a significant rally, advancing 8.12% to A$3.33. The move reflects a delayed market reaction to a series of major contract announcements from December, including a new $8.2 million deal with a Western military customer and a record level of booked revenue for the coming year.

The company ended the first trading session as one of the top performers on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). No new corporate announcements were released today. Analysts attribute the share price movement primarily to an $8.2 million contract disclosed on December 30, 2025, which markets had not fully priced in due to the holiday period.

Key developments underpinning the bullish sentiment include:

• Latest Contract: An $8.2 million agreement for the supply of portable counter-drone systems to a Western military end-user, facilitated through a reseller.
• 2026 Revenue Visibility: DroneShield enters the new year with approximately $97.7 million in firmly booked revenue. This substantial backlog significantly enhances financial visibility for 2026 and reduces execution risk for its growth plans.
• December Order Influx: The positive momentum is further supported by previously announced deals: a major $49.6 million European military contract from December 15 and a separate $6.2 million Asia-Pacific order from December 23.

The cumulative contract value has substantially raised the revenue base for 2026. Payment for the latest $8.2 million contract is expected in full during the first quarter.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying DroneShield?

Rebound from Insider Selling Pressure

The 8% gain marks a notable recovery in sentiment following a challenging period in late 2025. In November, the equity came under significant pressure after CEO Oleg Vornik and other directors sold shares, causing the price to fall well below its 52-week high of A$6.70.

Operationally, the company's position has continued to strengthen. The $97.7 million in committed revenue for 2026 exceeds the total annual sales of previous years, supporting a narrative of dynamic growth. This is bolstered by a favorable industry backdrop, where rising geopolitical tensions are driving global expenditure on counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) technologies—a sector where DroneShield has established a strong market position.

Execution in Focus

Market attention is now shifting toward operational execution and capacity. DroneShield is significantly expanding its manufacturing footprint, targeting an annual production capacity of A$2.4 billion by the end of 2026 to meet rising demand. The critical question for investors is whether the company can efficiently convert its record order book into realized revenue without supply chain or production bottlenecks.

• Upcoming Catalysts: The Q1 2026 cash flow report will be a focal point, as it should confirm the receipt of payments from the recent European and Western military contracts.
• Analyst Sentiment: The overall analyst view remains positive. Firms including Bell Potter maintain buy recommendations, with price targets ranging from A$3.70 to A$4.70. Market experts see additional upside potential primarily contingent on the smooth conversion of the record backlog into revenue without operational hiccups.

From a technical perspective, the breakout above the A$3.30 level is viewed as a positive signal. A sustained hold above this level could see the shares test resistance around A$3.50 in the coming weeks.