Almonty’s Cash Flow Inflection Marks New Era as Tungsten Prices and US Demand Reshape the Sector

The commercial launch of Almonty Industries’ Sangdong mine in South Korea has flipped the company’s cash flow from negative to positive in a single quarter, a milestone that underscores how deeply the tungsten market is being reshaped by supply constraints and geopolitical realignment.

Operating cash flow swung to CAD 9.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared with an outflow of CAD 4.4 million a year earlier. Revenue jumped to CAD 25.4 million from CAD 7.9 million, driven by Sangdong’s ramp-up, which entered commercial production in March. The net loss, still in the red, narrowed sharply to CAD 5.3 million from CAD 34.6 million — though much of that improvement stems from non-cash warrant revaluation effects tied to the rising share price.

The operating margin reached 31 percent, and adjusted EBITDA came in at USD 6.1 million, a figure the company did not previously report. That combination of metrics has caught the attention of several research houses.

D.A. Davidson reiterated its buy rating and lifted its price target to USD 25.00, citing a severe primary tungsten supply deficit. BofA Securities also kept a buy rating with a USD 23.00 target, while Zacks Investment Research upgraded the stock to a “Buy,” placing it in the top 20 percent of covered names. Diamond Equity Research published an illustrative valuation of CAD 31.80 per share, based on higher tungsten prices, Sangdong’s start, and a strengthened balance sheet.

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Shares have responded enthusiastically: the stock closed at CAD 28.46 on Wednesday, down nearly 6 percent on the day, but up 136.58 percent year-to-date. That kind of run leaves the stock vulnerable to profit-taking, but the underlying narrative remains intact.

Tungsten at a Record High

The primary external catalyst is the price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), which hit roughly USD 3,140 per metric tonne unit in early May, up from about USD 862 at the start of the year. That historic surge changes the economics for any producer with a shovel-ready project, and Sangdong is now benefiting directly.

China controls more than 80 percent of global tungsten supply, a dominance that has made Western buyers anxious. Sangdong is designed to cover about 40 percent of the world’s tungsten demand outside China, and a new US procurement rule set to take effect on January 1, 2027, will bar Chinese tungsten from defense supply chains. That timeline aligns neatly with Sangdong’s expansion plans.

Phase one is currently producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year. Phase two, targeted by 2027, would double that capacity. If successful, Almonty’s story shifts further from mine fantasy to industrial supplier.

Strategic Repositioning Underway

Almonty has moved its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, bringing it closer to US industrial and defense customers. Lockheed Martin is considered a key client. CEO Lewis Black presented the company’s investment case at a BofA conference in Miami, where the geopolitical tungsten angle was front and center.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Analysts at Bank of America and Oppenheimer increasingly view Almonty as the backbone of Western tungsten supply chains. BofA has flagged the possibility of a tungsten super-cycle. A discounted cash-flow model from Simply Wall St still sees the stock as trading 31.1 percent below estimated fair value, suggesting room for further upside if operational targets are met.

The company ended the quarter with CAD 259.85 million in cash and working capital of CAD 169.5 million — a comfortable buffer for the Sangdong ramp-up without immediate financing pressure. Almonty’s annual general meeting is scheduled for June 9, 2026, in Toronto, where governance structures for the new operating phase will be formalized.

What was once a development story has become a cash flow narrative, and the market is pricing it accordingly.

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