ASML Flirts With Record as Oracle's AI Splurge and Job-Cut Revamp Fuel Rally
11.06.2026 - 22:34:15 | boerse-global.de
ASML shares closed at €1,624.40 on Thursday, catapulted 8.11% higher in a session that leaves the stock just 0.64% shy of an all-time high. The rally is the culmination of two distinct catalysts: a softened social plan that eased labor tensions and Oracle's eye-popping capital expenditure plans that underscore relentless AI-driven demand for chipmaking equipment.
The Dutch lithography giant had already been climbing after reaching a revised agreement with Dutch unions over its restructuring plans. Initially targeting roughly 1,700 job cuts in the Netherlands and the US — focused on technology, IT and management layers — the company has now pushed the earliest compulsory redundancies back to May 2027, a full year later than originally scheduled. Internal reassignment will take priority, potentially salvaging hundreds of positions. ASML spokesperson Monique Mols confirmed that employees will learn whether their roles are affected before the end of June. The market greeted the news with a 3% gain to €1,554 at the time, and the stock has kept climbing since.
That momentum accelerated sharply when Oracle reported fourth-quarter revenue of $19.2 billion, up 21% year-on-year, and revealed that capital expenditure hit roughly $55.7 billion in its fiscal year — well above its own $50 billion forecast. For fiscal 2027, the database and cloud giant now plans to spend around $70 billion. The logic is straightforward: more data centers require more AI chips; more chips require more fabrication plants; and more fabs buy more lithography machines, a market ASML dominates with its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, for which it has no rival.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
Analysts have responded in force. BofA Securities lifted its price target to €1,921, Barclays to €1,900, and JPMorgan matched that figure. Morgan Stanley set a target of €1,660, while Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its buy rating. BofA went further, projecting that ASML could generate annual revenue of €73 billion by 2030 — well above the company’s own guidance of €60 billion — with gross margins surpassing 60%.
The financial backdrop already looks robust. In the first quarter of 2026, ASML posted EBIT of €3.2 billion, beating expectations by 4%. Management subsequently raised its full-year revenue forecast to between €36 billion and €40 billion, from a prior range of €34 billion to €39 billion, with gross margin expected to land between 51% and 53%. China’s share of revenue is shrinking — from 33% in 2025 to an estimated 20% in 2026 — but the gap is being filled by AI-driven orders from TSMC, Samsung and other chip giants.
Beyond the immediate numbers, the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market is seen entering a supercycle. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri expects the total WFE market to grow 27% this year to $147 billion, then another 35% in 2027 to $200 billion. ASML itself is ramping EUV production capacity to more than 90 machines per year by end-2027, compared with 48 units sold in 2024. The company has resumed hiring service technicians, and supplier Jenoptik reported strong lithography-related orders in the first quarter of 2026.
Still, there are headwinds. Despite a year-to-date gain of roughly 64% and a market capitalisation that has made it Europe’s most valuable listed company, ASML’s price-to-earnings ratio relative to US peers sits at its lowest level in more than a decade. Bernstein analyst David Dai has flagged concerns about whether the company can fully monetise the demand surge. CEO Christophe Fouquet stated in April that ASML will not raise machine prices — currently around €350 million apiece — solely because of strong demand. Tighter US and Dutch export controls also threaten to further restrict sales to China. The next major test will come with quarterly results in July.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 11 June
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
