ASML's $329 Million High-NA Bet: Analysts See Hidden Upside as Chip Giants Diverge on Adoption
24.05.2026 - 17:41:45 | boerse-global.de
The first chips produced on ASML's next-generation high-NA EUV lithography machines are expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks, marking a critical turning point for an industry that has poured billions into this technology. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet confirmed the test phase is nearly complete, pushing the system — priced at $329 million per unit — toward commercial deployment. Intel and SK Hynix are leading the charge, while TSMC remains hesitant, citing costs that still appear prohibitive for full-scale production.
It is against this backdrop that UBS has reinstated ASML as its top pick in the European semiconductor space, lifting its price target from €1,600 to €1,900. The bank argues that the market is underestimating the Dutch equipment supplier’s ability to capture the next wave of chip-industry investment. The new target sits well above the current share price, which on Friday closed at €1,403.40 — a fresh all-time high — after a 2.59% gain for the session.
Underpinning UBS’s conviction is a structural capacity advantage. Concerns that ASML itself could become a bottleneck in the chip supply chain are overblown, in the bank’s view. It estimates that ASML’s production capacity in 2027 could support more than 50% annual growth in leading-edge wafer output, while demand is expected to expand by only 25% to 30%. That gap bolsters ASML’s pricing power and market position.
Another factor often overlooked is the company’s exposure to memory chips. UBS believes that by 2026, memory applications could contribute 30% to 35% of ASML’s revenue — notably higher than the 25% to 30% seen at US rivals. The reason is technical: shrinking DRAM structures demand ever more advanced lithography, and ASML’s technology sits at the heart of that trend. The longer-term outlook for high-NA EUV remains intact despite delays at certain customers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
While the market focuses on technology upgrades, ASML is also streamlining its own operations. After a record 2025 that generated €32.7 billion in revenue and €9.7 billion in profit, the company is cutting around 1,700 jobs, primarily in the Netherlands. Management describes the move as an effort to sharpen focus, with savings redirected toward commercializing the newest generation of lithography tools.
The stock’s recent run has been extraordinary. Over the past twelve months, ASML has more than doubled, gaining 113.8%. Even at the all-time high, the relative strength index stands at 31.9, suggesting a slight oversold condition — a curious divergence that some technical analysts see as a potential contrarian signal. The shares now trade roughly 14% above their 50-day moving average and nearly 37% above the 200-day line, underscoring the strength of the uptrend.
Geopolitical alliances are evolving alongside the technology. The Netherlands and South Korea have announced plans to expand cooperation in photonics and semiconductor research, aiming to secure a strategic foothold in the global chip supply chain. Meanwhile, India is embarking on its own semiconductor mission. In Taiwan, where TSMC remains the dominant foundry, internal discontent over rumored bonus cuts has sparked talk of labor unrest, even as the company posted a 58% profit jump in the first quarter of 2026.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major catalyst for ASML comes in mid-July, when second-quarter results are due. The company already set a positive tone in Q1, delivering revenue and gross margins at the top end of its guidance range. Investors will also be watching for updates on Samsung’s 2nm GAA yield, currently estimated at around 50%, and whether Micron’s inability to cover two-thirds of HBM demand will force more rapid adoption of advanced lithography.
But the high-NA EUV story is not without risk. TSMC’s reluctance reflects a genuine cost barrier, and the question of whether these $329 million machines can deliver sufficient efficiency gains below the 2nm threshold will be answered only over the next twelve months. If they do, ASML’s lead will only widen.
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