ASML's Rally Intensifies: Musk's Texas Chip Vision and a Gentler Workforce Overhaul
12.06.2026 - 14:26:29 | boerse-global.de
Elon Musk has described ASML as "probably the most important company in Europe," and the market is pricing in that superlative. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker's shares hit a fresh all-time high of €1,644 on Friday, before settling back to around €1,601. The stock has now surged 62% since the start of the year, with the latest leg driven by two developments that landed on the same day: a scaled-back redundancy plan and the disclosure of a multibillion-dollar chip project from the Tesla and SpaceX chief.
That project, dubbed "Terafab," envisions a massive chip fabrication plant in Texas with an estimated investment cost ranging from $55 billion to $119 billion. Musk outlined the vision during a virtual appearance at an internal ASML technology conference on June 11, 2026, detailing plans to manufacture 2-nanometer chips for Tesla, SpaceX, and his AI venture xAI. The facility would target an output of up to 200 billion AI chips per year. To reach that scale, the production line would rely on High-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems — a machine category in which ASML holds a global monopoly. Each unit costs roughly $400 million.
ASML chief executive Christophe Fouquet has confirmed the talks and sees Terafab as a potential anchor customer for the company's most advanced equipment. Intel is reportedly partnering with SpaceX on the project.
Alongside the Musk-driven euphoria, ASML announced it had reached an agreement with Dutch unions to significantly reduce the scale of its previously announced job cuts. The original plan, unveiled in January 2026, called for eliminating around 1,700 roles — roughly 4% of the workforce. Following negotiations with the De Unie union, the final number of compulsory redundancies will be "well below 1,000." Management has committed to no forced layoffs until May 1, 2027, and many affected employees will be reassigned internally rather than let go. Those who do leave will receive a severance package capped at €400,000. All impacted staff will be notified of their status by the end of June.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The combination of a dramatically lighter restructuring and a potential revenue catalyst from Musk's moonshot factory pushed the stock within a hair's breadth of its previous 52-week high of €1,633.40 earlier in the week, before blowing past it on Friday.
Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish. Bank of America raised its price target to €1,921 in early June, citing the rapid expansion of EUV capacity. Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Buy" rating on the day of the conference, and the consensus among 24 analysts covering the stock is "Moderate Buy." The lone dissenter is Morningstar, which rates ASML a "Sell" on valuation grounds.
Fundamentals are supporting the optimism. ASML lifted its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion. In the first quarter, the company posted €8.8 billion in sales and €2.8 billion in net profit, powered by sustained demand for AI infrastructure. The stock now trades roughly 25% above its 50-day moving average and more than 50% above the 200-day line. Its 14-day relative strength index stands at 70, flirting with overbought territory after a 14% gain in just seven sessions. Over the past twelve months, the share price has more than doubled.
Asml at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For all the momentum, risks remain. The lofty valuation leaves little room for disappointment, and export restrictions targeting Asia continue to hang over the sector. Whether Musk turns his Texas blueprint into a functioning factory will determine if this rally has legs — but for now, the market is betting he will.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 12 June
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
