ASML's Rally Tests 1,644 EUR as Oracle and Musk Catalysts Collide with a Workforce Overhaul
13.06.2026 - 16:12:32 | boerse-global.de
A 13-percent weekly surge and a fresh 52-week high have put ASML Equipment back in the spotlight, but the Dutch chip-tool giant’s rapid gains are only part of a more layered story. Two unrelated catalysts — a stunning cloud-computing blowout from Oracle and an audacious $55 billion-to-$119 billion chip fab project backed by Elon Musk — propelled the stock to €1,644 intraweek, before it settled at €1,614.80 on Friday. The year-to-date return now stands just above 63 percent.
Oracle lit the fuse on Tuesday when it reported a 93 percent jump in fourth-quarter cloud infrastructure revenue to $5.8 billion, alongside capital expenditures of $55.7 billion — well above the company’s own $50 billion forecast. For 2027, Oracle projects a net cash outflow of roughly $70 billion, a signal of relentless data-centre buildout. ASML’s shares responded with a single-day leap of more than 5 percent on Thursday, as investors connected the dots: each new server farm requires chips, and each advanced chip requires the Dutch company’s exclusive extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
The real firepower, however, came from a different corner. Speaking at ASML’s own technology conference on Thursday, Musk unveiled the “Terafab” project — a joint Tesla-SpaceX chip plant planned for Grimes County, Texas, with an investment range of $55 billion to $119 billion. The facility is designed to produce more than a terawatt of AI compute capacity annually. Musk called ASML “probably the biggest company in Europe” and urged the audience to “cherish and support” its technology. The Terafab is unfeasible without ASML’s EUV systems, and the market priced in that dependency with a new peak.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The rally drew further support from a chorus of analyst upgrades that arrived in the first week of June. Bank of America lifted its price target to €1,921, while Barclays set €1,900. Both cited improved demand visibility through 2028 and rising capacity plans, driven by long-term take-or-pay agreements for GPUs, CPUs, ASICs and DRAM. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley followed suit, with respective targets of €1,900 and €1,660 — both rated overweight. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its buy stance, projecting ASML revenue of €73 billion by 2030, well above the company’s own upper guidance of €60 billion, and a gross margin that could exceed 60 percent. Of 44 analysts polled, the consensus rating is “Strong Buy”.
Yet the euphoria belies a painful internal reshuffle. On Wednesday, ASML finalised a social plan with unions CNV and De Unie that affects roughly 1,700 positions, primarily in development, engineering, IT and data. Seventy percent of union members approved the arrangement, which rules out compulsory redundancies until 1 May 2027. Management is relying on internal transfers to reduce layers and sharpen innovation — a process that has been underway for months. The decision to invite Musk as a keynote speaker was itself divisive: some employees voiced discontent over his political activities and public statements, adding a layer of friction to what was supposed to be a celebratory week.
The corporate overhaul comes as demand far outstrips supply. ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet recently lifted the 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion. The order backlog stands at around €45 billion. The first quarter of 2026 delivered revenue of €8.8 billion at a 53 percent gross margin. EUV shipments are expected to climb from 48 units in 2025 to more than 60 this year and roughly 80 in 2027. Fouquet describes the high-performance chip market as “supply-constrained” — AI infrastructure investments are sucking up capacity faster than ASML can ramp EUV and High-NA production. TSMC, Samsung and Intel are all accelerating their expansions, making ASML the bottleneck rather than the beneficiary of weak demand.
One risk lingers: China accounts for about 20 percent of 2026 revenues. The bipartisan MATCH Act in the U.S. would prohibit ASML from selling deep-UV immersion systems to companies such as SMIC, Huawei or YMTC. CFO Roger Dassen has acknowledged that additional export curbs could hit both revenue and the lucrative service business. But he added that even with regional restrictions, global capacity needs remain immense — the industry is structurally undersupplied. ASML’s next quarterly report, due in mid-July, will show whether the elevated annual guidance is sustainable. For now, the maker of the world’s most sophisticated chip machines is riding two powerful waves, while quietly reshaping the crew that steers the ship.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 13 June
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
