Barrick Mining Unleashes $3 Billion Buyback After Mali Comeback and Gold-Fueled Earnings Surge

Barrick Mining has turned a corner in Mali just as gold prices supercharge its finances, clearing the way for a bold capital return strategy. The Loulo-Gounkoto complex, hobbled by regulatory clashes and a temporary state takeover through much of 2025, delivered 80,000 ounces of gold in the first quarter — a faster-than-expected recovery that helped push group production well ahead of internal forecasts.

The operational rebound came alongside blockbuster financial results. Revenue surged 67% from a year earlier to $5.22 billion, while adjusted earnings per share hit $0.98 — comfortably above Wall Street estimates. The attributable EBITDA more than doubled to $2.76 billion, reflecting the leverage from an average realised gold price of $4,823 per ounce. BMO analyst Matthew Murphy flagged standout performances from the company’s North and Latin American mines, with free cash flow also exceeding consensus.

With cash piling up, Barrick’s board authorised a share buyback of up to $3 billion — roughly 4% of the company’s market capitalisation — to run over the next twelve months. Management described the current stock price as offering “exceptional value”, a striking statement given the competing demands on capital. The programme is paired with a base quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share, payable in mid-June, consistent with Barrick’s performance-linked payout policy.

The market reacted swiftly. Barrick shares jumped nearly 8% in midday trading on the day of the release. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, the stock closed at C$62.82, having rallied roughly 10% over the previous week. Even after that run, the shares trade about 13% below their 52-week high. Some valuation models now peg intrinsic value near $48 per share in US terms, citing a discount of enterprise value to EBITDA.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

For Mali, the turnaround is tangible but still fragile. The Loulo-Gounkoto complex had suffered months of disruption after a dispute over the 2023 mining code and subsequent government administration. During the halt, the former service provider Gounkoto Mining Services terminated over 600 employees. Barrick now intends to hire a local contractor by year-end and restart mining in one of the affected open pits. The strong first-quarter contribution suggests efficiency improvements in both extraction and processing are taking hold.

Group-wide gold production reached 719,000 ounces, exceeding the company’s own guidance. For the second quarter, Barrick expects output of 730,000 to 770,000 ounces, leaving the full-year target of roughly 3 million ounces intact. The key question, as the buyback gains traction, is whether Mali can sustain the higher run rate.

Copper remains a strategic priority, though the payoff is further out. In Zambia, the Lumwana “Super Pit” expansion carries an estimated cost of $2 billion, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is slated to start production in 2029, targeting a significant long-term copper contribution. These outlays, alongside the buyback, dividend, and a planned partial initial public offering, put heavy pressure on Barrick’s cash allocation.

Barrick Mining at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The proposed IPO involves a new North American subsidiary that will bundle the Nevada joint venture and the Pueblo Viejo mine. Barrick aims to list a minority stake by the end of 2026 while retaining majority control. The move has been in preparation for months, though the exact timing remains subject to market conditions.

Despite the bullish momentum, risks are not hard to find. Barrick’s earnings remain acutely sensitive to gold price swings, and regulatory uncertainties in Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo create a persistent overhang. The buyback programme’s weight will depend on production stability — if Mali continues to deliver, the capital return story gains real credibility.

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