BASF Enters Uncharted Waters as Buyback Draws to a Close and Middle East Tensions Mount
12.06.2026 - 18:09:03 | boerse-global.de
BASF is navigating a delicate juncture. The €1.5 billion share buyback programme that has steadied the stock since November 2025 will expire at the end of this month, removing a major source of demand just as Chief Executive Markus Kamieth delivers a stark warning about the risk of an oil-price shock triggered by the Iran conflict. The shares, which have slipped 6.78% below their 50-day moving average of €52.13 (or €52.14 per a separate calculation), now trade at €48.59 — close to the 200-day line of €46.94 that represents the last technical bulwark. The year-to-date gain has narrowed to 8.6% from a high of 10.43% earlier in the spring, reflecting the market's growing unease.
The buyback, the first tranche of a planned €4 billion repurchase programme running through 2028, has been a key prop for the stock. Its withdrawal puts the spotlight squarely on BASF's underlying performance. The company reported first-quarter revenue of €16.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA of €2.36 billion, and management has described the second-quarter outlook as achievable despite a fading of the March demand spike that was artificially inflated by supply-chain jitters. The broader industry backdrop, however, remains grim. Germany's chemical industry association expects production in the chemical-pharmaceutical sector to stagnate this year, with pure chemicals output set to contract by 1%. Kamieth himself has called the current period the worst for the industry in a quarter of a century.
What has sharpened his rhetoric is the geopolitical flashpoint in the Middle East. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude oil and up to 40% of refined fuels and chemical products pass, would deliver a price shock that Europe's energy-poor producers are ill-prepared to absorb. Kamieth also cited mounting inflation and supply-chain disruptions from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, noting that shortages of inputs such as sulphur and helium risk paralysing tightly managed manufacturing networks, particularly in the automotive sector — a critical customer base for BASF. On natural gas, the CEO was more sanguine, arguing that China's ability to switch to coal would cap global prices, but he ruled out any return of cheap Russian gas to Europe.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
The company's own cost-cutting effort is proceeding at an accelerated pace. Targeted annual savings have been raised to €2.3 billion by the end of 2026, up from an earlier €2.1 billion goal. Portfolio adjustments continue: BASF recently signed the sale of its silicates business to PQ Corporation, including assets at the Düsseldorf/Holthausen site, with the deal expected to close in the second half. Financial terms were not disclosed, leaving investors to guess at the contribution to capital returns. Meanwhile, the massive €8.7 billion Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China, which opened in March 2026, remains both a growth bet and a risk factor, given the long ramp-up phase and latent geopolitical tensions around Taiwan.
For the full year, BASF targets adjusted EBITDA of €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion — a wide range that underscores the uncertainty. The next crucial milestone is the half-year report on July 30, when management must demonstrate that the annual targets remain intact without the support of active share repurchases. The technical picture shows the relative strength index at 37.9, suggesting oversold conditions but not yet signalling panic. That leaves the stock in a waiting pattern, caught between a fading financial prop and the gathering clouds of trade disruption and industry stagnation.
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