BMW's €2 Billion Buyback Gets a Second Wind as iX3 Orders Overwhelm and Stock Plunges to 52-Week Low
22.06.2026 - 00:50:56 | boerse-global.de
BMW shares have been routed this month, sinking to a 52-week low of €58.80 on June 18 and closing Friday at €60.38. The stock has shed 37% since the start of the year, and the relative strength index now reads 20.5 — territory that normally signals a deeply oversold condition. The gap between the current price and the 50-day moving average has widened to over 20%, reflecting acute investor unease.
Yet the Munich-based automaker is not pulling back from its capital return plan. Despite the sell-off, BMW is forging ahead with a €2 billion share buyback programme that runs until spring 2027. In the middle of June, it repurchased more than 420,000 ordinary shares for roughly €29 million. Goldman Sachs strategists have suggested the company could even increase the pace of purchases at these depressed valuations, given the deep discount to intrinsic worth.
That confidence stands in stark contrast to the credit rating agencies' view. Moody's on June 19 changed the outlook on BMW's A2 long-term rating from stable to negative, explicitly pointing to weaker profit and cash flow projections. Two days earlier, UBS had cut its price target from €88 to €70 while keeping a neutral rating — a level the stock already trades well below.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
At the heart of the trouble is a dramatically narrower margin outlook. BMW now expects its automotive EBIT margin for 2026 to land between 1% and 3%, roughly half of the 4% to 6% previously forecast. The company cites slack demand in China and higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict as the primary drags. In response, management has opened talks with the works council about trimming up to 5% of the global workforce — roughly 7,700 positions — mainly through natural attrition rather than compulsory redundancies.
On the other side of the ledger, the product pipeline is generating genuine enthusiasm. The all-electric BMW iX3 has already collected more than 50,000 orders in Europe, effectively soaking up the entire 2026 capacity at the new Debrecen plant in Hungary. A lower-cost iX3 40 variant is due this summer, and a China-specific version is being prepared at the Shenyang factory. In total, the company plans to launch over 40 new models based on its Neue Klasse architecture by 2027.
Adding to the product momentum, BMW has pulled forward the order launch for the new i3. The First Edition of the i3 50 xDrive is available now at €75,340, with series production slated for August. It marks the first vehicle built on the Neue Klasse platform.
Looking ahead, the second half of 2026 will bring one-off costs from an intensified savings programme, the precise amount of which will be disclosed alongside the half-year results. While BMW is maintaining its dividend payout ratio of 30% to 40%, analysts widely expect a meaningful cut given the earnings crash. The interim numbers, due in the coming weeks, will likely set the stock's trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Ad
BMW Stock: New Analysis - 22 June
Fresh BMW information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
