BMW Stock Whipsawed by Tariffs and China Weakness as Analysts Head for the Exits
13.06.2026 - 17:13:45 | boerse-global.de
The Munich carmaker’s share price closed at €67.40 on Friday, clinging to a perch just above its 52-week trough of €65.52. The year-to-date slide now totals almost 30%, erasing nearly a third of shareholder value. Against this grim backdrop, Citigroup has slashed its price target from €86 to €73, keeping a neutral rating but delivering a stark verdict on the company’s near-term prospects. The new target sits less than 10% above the current level, leaving little room for error.
A toxic combination of higher tariffs and slowing Chinese demand is hammering the bottom line. BMW’s core automotive margin slipped to 5.0% in the first quarter, with import duties consuming 1.25 percentage points of that figure. Deliveries to China, the company’s largest single market, collapsed by 10% during the period, and the broader Chinese auto market contracted even more sharply. Group revenue fell to roughly €31 billion, while the autos division saw sales drop 7% and its pre-tax margin land at 7.6%.
Not every analyst is throwing in the towel. JPMorgan’s Jose Asumendi maintains a price target of €100, betting on a recovery later in the year. Yet even he expects the second-quarter automotive margin to come in at just 5%, below the consensus view. The next major catalyst comes with June sales figures, followed by the half-year report. A weak set of June numbers could drag the stock back toward its yearly low, testing that €65.52 floor.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
From a technical standpoint, the equity is deeply oversold. The relative strength index reads 25, a level that historically has preceded short-term bounces. Any recovery, however, would first need to absorb the shock of Citigroup’s downgrade and contend with a 200-day moving line that sits roughly 20% above the current price — a formidable barrier.
Management is sticking to its full-year guidance: an automotive operating margin between 4% and 6%, flat unit sales, and a moderate decline in pre-tax profit. Whether that forecast holds depends on tariff developments and whether China can find a floor. Until then, the stock remains caught between Citigroup’s bearish realism and JPMorgan’s stubborn optimism, with the next set of sales data likely to break the impasse.
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