Chip Export Curbs and Broadcom’s Guidance Gap Tighten the Screws on Nvidia
04.06.2026 - 14:13:17 | boerse-global.de
A double dose of friction hit Nvidia this week, as tightening US export controls and a cautious outlook from Broadcom dragged the stock lower. The chipmaker’s shares slipped 1.7% to €182.04 on Thursday after Broadcom’s quarterly figures fell short of expectations, raising questions about the pace of the AI chip boom. That follows a steeper 3.6% drop on June 3, when new export rules targeting Nvidia’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures triggered a broader sell-off in the sector.
The US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security published updated guidelines on May 31, closing a roughly one-year-old loophole that allowed Chinese companies to acquire restricted chips through international subsidiaries. Export licences are now required for advanced Nvidia platforms — Blackwell and Vera Rubin — when the parent company is based in China or Macau, regardless of where the subsidiary operates. The changes hit data centres in Singapore and Malaysia especially hard, with industry estimates suggesting “hundreds of thousands” of high-performance chips may have been shipped through those channels since May 2025. Existing data centres are grandfathered, but future deliveries are blocked. Nvidia itself expects no material impact on current business.
Broadcom added to the unease. The company reported 48% revenue growth to $22.19 billion, but analysts had pencilled in $22.27 billion. More worrying was the third-quarter guidance: Broadcom forecast AI chip revenue of $16 billion, well below the market’s $16.36 billion estimate. The gap was enough to spark a pre-market sell-off across the semiconductor space, with market watchers pointing to a rotation out of AI hardware names like Nvidia into other infrastructure areas such as CPUs, memory, and optical networking.
Despite the recent pullback, Nvidia’s technical picture remains intact. The stock is trading comfortably above its 50-day moving average of €173.76 and its 200-day average of €161.32. The relative strength index of 48.8 sits in neutral territory. Year to date, Nvidia is still up 13%, and the 12-month gain stands at nearly 46%. The stock is roughly 10% off its all-time high of €202.50 reached in mid-May.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Analyst sentiment holds firm. The consensus among 37 analysts remains a “Buy” with an average price target of around €281 ($305.38 based on the US listing). Morgan Stanley keeps an “Overweight” rating, highlighting a potential $20 billion revenue opportunity in the CPU market. Institutional interest is mixed: ARK Invest under Cathie Wood added to its Nvidia position, while some asset managers used the recent strength to take profits. Insider sales of roughly 906,000 shares over the past 90 days have also been notable.
None of the headwinds appear to be cooling demand for Nvidia’s next-generation platform. Digi Power X committed $35 million to Vera Rubin systems on June 3 — the GPUs pack 288 GB of HBM4 memory, and the Vera CPU features 88 cores. First deliveries are scheduled for the first quarter of 2027. CoreWeave has already validated the Vera Rubin NVL72 platform, which links 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs via NVLink 6, targeting demanding AI workloads.
Supply constraints, however, remain a structural challenge. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei confirmed on June 4 that the global supply of high-performance chips will lag AI-driven demand for years, even with expanded production in the US. Memory shortages add to the pressure: nine industry associations warned the US government on June 3 about risks to automotive and medical supply chains, and SK hynix expects memory bottlenecks to persist until 2030.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
On the shareholder side, Nvidia’s quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share goes ex-dividend on June 4, with payment on June 26. The company also continues its $80 billion share buyback programme. Nvidia is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 26, with management guiding for revenue of roughly $91 billion, up from a record $81.6 billion in the first quarter. The key risks remain US export restrictions and rising competition in the custom AI chip market.
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