Diplomacy and Dollars: Nvidia's Record Run Meets a Pivotal Moment in US-China Trade Talks

Jensen Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska on May 13, a last-minute addition to President Trump’s delegation heading to China. The CEO of Nvidia wasn’t just joining a photo opportunity — he was stepping into a geopolitical minefield that could directly shape the chipmaker’s outlook. The talks, scheduled for Thursday and Friday, cover everything from trade access to export controls, and for Nvidia, the timing could hardly be more charged.

The stock reflects the tension. In Frankfurt, Nvidia shares touched EUR 191.32 on Wednesday, a fresh 52-week high and a gain of 1.68% on the day. The rally has added roughly $550 billion in market value in recent weeks, pushing the company’s total worth to around $5.33 trillion. Over the past month, the stock has climbed 19.37%, and year-to-date it stands 18.76% higher.

Yet the diplomatic mission underscores a central vulnerability: China remains a critical market for Nvidia’s H200 graphics processors, but those chips are locked out by US export restrictions. Any loosening of those rules would expand the addressable opportunity in data-center hardware; without progress, the company’s record valuation relies on growth outside China. Huang has stated he aims to support national objectives and represent US interests, but the outcome of the talks could alter the revenue equation.

Analysts are already recalibrating their expectations. Wells Fargo raised its price target on Nvidia from $265 to $315 on May 12, maintaining an Overweight rating. Analyst Aaron Rakers based his thesis on a model that tracks power demand for large-scale AI infrastructure, forecasting that relevant capacity will climb from 9.2 gigawatts to 25.2 gigawatts by 2029. In that scenario, data-center revenue for fiscal 2027 could reach $354.5 billion, a figure that sits slightly above consensus. Susquehanna also lifted its target, from $250 to $275, citing the ramp of the GB300 processor and the upcoming Vera Rubin architecture.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

Away from the diplomatic circuit, Nvidia continues to build out its AI-infrastructure pipeline. The company announced a partnership with IREN Limited to accelerate the construction of up to 5 gigawatts of AI-ready capacity. As part of the deal, Nvidia secured the right to purchase up to 30 million common shares of IREN at $70 each, representing a potential investment of $2.1 billion. Separately, Suzanne Nora Johnson will join Nvidia’s board in mid-July.

The stock’s technical picture suggests the rally has room to run. The 200-day moving average sits 18.80% below the current price, and the relative strength index at 56.4 indicates neutral territory — not yet overheated. In the US, Nvidia shares closed at $188.16 on Tuesday, exactly matching the 52-week high.

Huang’s own compensation slipped for fiscal 2026 to $36.3 million, down from $49.9 million the prior year, largely due to lower equity grants. His base salary held at $1.5 million, with a $6 million bonus, plus performance-based stock awards valued at $141.3 million.

Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

All eyes now turn to May 20, when Nvidia reports quarterly earnings. That report will provide the next concrete check on demand for AI accelerators and the impact of export restrictions. For now, a large piece of the Nvidia story hinges on signals from both Washington and Beijing — and the CEO is in the room where those signals are being negotiated.

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